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Another week, another chance to trade the Loonie!

Markets aren’t expecting fireworks from the BOC this week, so it’s possible that we’ll see more volatility from a closely watched OPEC+ event.

Check out the market themes you need to know about!

BOC’s statement (Jul 15, 2:00 pm GMT)

  • Bank of Canada (BOC) didn’t make major policy changes in June
  • BOC signaled optimism by scaling back its market operations
  • BOC’s optimism, combined with the vaccine and “reopening” themes during the U.S. session, helped lift CAD against most of its counterparts
  • Analysts expect BOC to maintain its overnight rate at a record low of 0.25%
  • Governor Macklem’s presser scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT should shed light on the central bank’s near-term policy outlook

Lower tier releases

  • Manufacturing sales (Jul 15, 12:30 pm GMT) to rise by 10.0% after dropping by 28.5% in April
  • ADP non-farm employment change (Jul 16, 12:30 pm GMT) to see a net 300,000 gain in June
  • Wholesale sales (Jul 17, 12:30 pm GMT) seen at 15.0% after 21.6% decline in April

Crude oil price trends

  • Crude oil is one of Canada’s biggest exports, so headlines over the Black Crack could affect the demand for Loonie
  • A committee of key officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia will meet on Wednesday and are expected to ease their production cuts as economies ease their lockdown restrictions
  • Check in to see how worried oil producers are over a “second wave” affecting economic activities

Other market-moving themes

  • Central banks like ECB and BOJ will also publish their monetary policy decisions this week
  • Top-tier releases from the U.S. (retail sales, PMIs) and China (GDP, industrial activity, retail sales) can also influence overall risk-taking
  • Coronavirus cases, vaccine and stimulus prospects, and lockdown concerns will continue to affect the demand for the high-yielding comdolls

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers CAD as “oversold” against AUD, CHF, GBP, and NZD on the daily time frame
CAD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
CAD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • The Loonie is on short and long-term bearish trends against the Aussie, euro, Kiwi, and pound
  • Watch out for a potential reversal against the dollar
CAD Forex Pairs SMA from MarketMilk
CAD Forex Pairs SMA from MarketMilk
  • The Loonie has seen the most volatility against the yen, pound, dollar, and Aussie in the last seven days
CAD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
CAD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for July 6 – 10!