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New lockdown measures did NOT do the Aussie favors last week.

Can we see some recovery for the comdoll in the next few days?

Here are catalysts you can pay attention to!

Labor market numbers (Jul 16, 1:30 am GMT)

  • Australia lost a net 227,700 jobs in May after losing 607,400 jobs in April
  • 89,100 had lost full-time jobs while 138,584 workers had lost their part-time work
  • Unemployment rate jumped from 6.4% to 7.1% for the month
  • AUD initially dropped at the news but optimism for more stimulus from the U.K. and China soon lifted high-yielding currencies during the London session
  • Analysts expect a net 70,000 jobs increase in June
  • Unemployment rate could climb from 7.1% to 7.5%, however, as participation rate improves from 62.9% to 63.4%

Lower-tier releases

  • NAB business confidence (Jul 14, 1:30 am GMT) to improve from -20 to -15 in June
  • Westpac consumer sentiment (Jul 15, 12:30 am GMT) seen at 2.5% after 6.3% improvement in June
  • MI inflation expectations (Jul 16, 1:00 am GMT) could accelerate from 3.3% to 3.5% in June

Closely watched reports from China

  • Australia exports a lot of products to China, so indicators for China’s growth can affect the demand for AUD
  • Trade surplus (Jul 14, Asian session) is expected to ease in June as exports are set to improve faster than imports
  • A data dump on July 16 at 2:00 am GMT could see China’s GDP improve from -6.8% to 2.4% in Q2 2020
  • Industrial production to inch higher from 67.3% to 68.0%
  • Fixed asset investment (YTD) seen only dropping by 3.3% from -6.3% in May
  • Retail sales to grow by 0.5% after dropping by 2.8% from a year ago in May
  • Unemployment rate could slip from 5.9% to 5.7%

Market sentiment

  • Coronavirus cases, government stimulus, and the pace or reopening economies will continue to influence the demand for high-yielding currencies like the Aussie
  • Top-tier reports from other major economies, such as BOJ, BOC, and ECB’s policy decisions and U.S. PMIs and retail sales can also affect AUD’s intraweek price trends
  • Watch out for updates on Australia’s lockdown measures

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic flags AUD’s “overbought” conditions against CAD
  • The Aussie may be “oversold” against GBP and NZD on the daily time frame
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • Aussie is on short AND long-term bullish trends against the safe havens, EUR, and CAD
  • We may soon see retracement or reversal opportunities against GBP and NZD
AUD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • AUD was most volatile against USD, JPY, GBP, and EUR in the last seven days
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for July 6 – 10!