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Weak data and geopolitical tensions weighed on the dollar last week.

Can this week’s set of closely watched reports change the tides for the Greenback?

Here’s are potential catalysts to watch in the next few days:

Leading indicators for NFP

  • ADP report (June 3, 12:15 pm GMT) is expected to show another 9 million jobless in May
  • ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI (June 3, 2:00 pm GMT) to improve from 41.8 to 44.0?
  • Challenger job cuts (June 3, 11:30 am GMT) spiked to 671,129 in April, the highest on record
  • Weekly initial jobless claims (June 3, 12:30 pm GMT) could see another 1.8 million unemployed

NFP reports (June 4, 12:30 pm GMT)

  • Non-farm payrolls (NFP) could see a net job loss of 7 million in May
  • Unemployment rate seen jumping from 14.7% to 19.5%
  • Average hourly earnings could slim down from 4.7% to 1.0%

Dollar demand

  • Tensions against China could inspire risk aversion and push the safe haven USD higher
  • Optimism over global stimulus efforts and post-lockdown economic activity can inspire traders to take on higher-yielding bets
  • Ongoing riots in the U.S. can influence economic outlook and demand for the dollar
  • Top-tier releases from other major economies can also impact the dollar’s price action

Technical snapshot

  • Bollinger Bands are pointing at the dollar’s “oversold” conditions against the Norwegian krone, Aussie, Swedish krona, euro, and franc on the daily time frame
USD Forex Pairs Bollinger Bands from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Bollinger Bands from MarketMilk
  • 50 and 200 SMAs suggest that the dollar is “bullish but weakening” against a bunch of major counterparts
  • Pay attention to GBP/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and USD/NOK which could seen reflect dollar weakness
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • USD saw the most volatility against MXN, NOK, AUD, and ZAR in the last seven days
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for May 25 – 29!