CAD Weekly Forecast – BOC to Welcome New Governor

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The BOC is up this week!

What are analysts expecting from the event and which potential catalysts can move the Loonie?

I’ve got a list!

BOC’s statement (June 3, 2:00 pm GMT)

In mid-April Bank of Canada (BOC) maintained its 0.25% interest rates and introduced tens of billions worth of market operations
CAD paused from its losses at the time, though it wasn’t until the next day when it found its intraweek bottom
Analysts don’t expect policy changes from BOC this week
It’s Poloz’ last stint as Governor before he gets replaced by Tiff Macklem. Watch out for hints of his policy biases

Canada shed a record 1.99 million jobs in April, double the 1 million job losses in March
Unemployment rate jumped from 7.8% to 13.0% while participation rate dropped from 63.5% to 59.8%
CAD still maintained its intraday gains thanks to vaccine and reopening of economy prospects
Canada is printing labor market numbers AT THE SAME TIME as the U.S. NFP reports
Another 500,000 workers may have lost jobs in May
Analysts see the jobless rate rocketing to 15% in May
The IVEY PMI (June 5, 2:00 pm GMT), which is usually a leading indicator, is printed after the official numbers

Pandemic headlines (end of lockdown measures, vaccine prospects, stimulus programs) will continue to affect risk taking in the markets
Resumption of economic activities could improve demand for oil (and oil-related CAD)
Top-tier reports (RBA and ECB decisions, PMI reports, NFP numbers) can influence risk appetite during their releases

50 and 200 SMAs suggest that the Loonie’s bearish trends might be weakening on the daily chart

Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for May 25 – 29!