Aussie bulls and bears are in for a busy week!
Think the Aussie can keep its gains from the previous week?
Check out the potential catalysts that you should watch if you’re trading the comdoll in the next few days.
RBA’s statement (June 2, 5:30 am GMT)
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its 0.25% interest rates as expected in May, but broadened its criteria for corporate debt securities purchases from AAA, A-3, and A-1 to now include BBB- assets
- No policy changes expected this month
- Keep close tabs on RBA’s economic outlook, which could influence the demand for AUD
Domestic economic reports
- AIG’s manufacturing index just printed at 41.6 from a 35.8 reading in April
- MI inflation gauge (June 1, 1:00 am GMT) saw a 0.1% dip in April
- Quarterly business profits (June 2, 1:30 am GMT) could print flat in Q1 2020
- Quarterly GDP could drop from 0.5% to -0.4% in Q1 2020
- Annualized GDP to weaken from 2.2% to 1.4%?
- Trade surplus (June 4, 1:30 am GMT) could narrow down from 10.60B AUD to 7.50B AUD in April
- Retail sales (June 4, 1:30 am GMT) to drop by 17.9% in April?
- Official manufacturing PMI dipped from 50.8 to 50.6 in May
- Non-manufacturing PMI improved from 53.2 to 53.6
- Caixin’s manufacturing PMI (June 1, 1:45 am GMT) could improve from 49.4 to 49.6
- Caixin’s non-manufacturing PMI (June 3, 1:45 am GMT) seen at 47.4 from April’s 44.4 reading
Overall risk sentiment
- China’s retaliation over Australia’s coronavirus probe will likely keep AUD bulls on their toes
- Escalating tensions between the U.S. and China can limit AUD’s gains if it escalates
- Reopening of Australia’s economy should continue to support the Aussie
- Closely watched reports from other countries, such as BOC and ECB’s statements, PMI releases, and the NFP report can influence demand for high-yielding bets like the Aussie
- Stochastic believes that AUD is “overbought” against USD, JPY, CAD, and GBP and is neutral against NZD and EUR on the daily time frame
- The Aussie is bullish against most of its counterparts and may soon trade above its 200 SMAs against the euro and franc
- Like NZD, the Aussie has been most volatile against the safe havens and the euro in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for May 25 – 29!