It’s NFP week, yo! What are markets expecting from the event and how can you trade the dollar?
I’ve got the nuggets that can help you make pips from the scrilla this week!
Factory orders (May 4, 2:00 pm GMT)
- Factory orders were (unexpectedly) unchanged in February after a 0.5% dip in January
- USD rallied across the board as Fed injected stimulus and Trump talked up price war truce between Saudi and Russia
- Analysts see factory orders plunging by 9.4% in March
Leading indicators for NFP
- ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI (May 5, 2:00 pm GMT) could drop from 52.5 to 41.5 in April
- ADP’s employment (May 6, 12:15 pm GMT) expected to decrease by 12 million in April
- Challenger job cuts (May 6, 11:30 am GMT) saw a 266.9% jump in March
- Weekly initial jobless claims (May 7, 12:30 pm GMT) could add an additional 3 million, bringing the total initial claimants at 33.3 million in the last six weeks
NFP numbers (May 8, 12:30 pm GMT)
- Non-farm payrolls (NFP) could see a 2 million drop in April
- Unemployment rate expected to jump from 4.4% to 15.1%
- Average hourly earnings to dip from 0.4% to 0.3%?
- Coronavirus cases, reopening of key economies, policy responses, and drug and vaccine prospects can affect risk-taking in the markets
- Tensions between the U.S. and China (or Iran) can influence demand for the low-yielding dollar
- Significant hits or misses from other top-tier reports can also affect market risk sentiment
- USD has gained against AUD and CAD in the last seven days and has lost the most pips to CHF, EUR, JPY, and GBP
- USD is on a bullish trend against CAD and NZD on the daily time frame
- USD is still bearish against JPY and CHF
- Watch out for potential retracements or reversal opportunities on EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD
- USD saw the most volatility against AUD, NZD, GBP, and CAD in the last 30 days
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for April 27 – May 1!