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A mix of economic themes pushed the Kiwi all over the charts last week.
Will the comdoll find one-directional trends with this week’s set of catalysts?
Here are the major events you need to take note of:
Quarterly labor market data (May 5, 10:45 pm GMT)
- Unemployment rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.0% in Q4 2019, while wages had risen by its fastest rate since 2009
- The report pointed to the RBNZ keeping its rates unchanged, which helped boost NZD for the first hour or two after the data release
- Analysts see the unemployment rate jumping from 4.0% to 4.5% in Q1 2020
- Employment could dip by 0.2% while labor force participation rate might ease from 70.1% to 69.9%
Inflation expectations (May 7, 3:00 am GMT)
- Inflation estimates ticked higher for Q1 2020, while expectations for RBNZ’s rates, house prices, and employment also improved
- NZD failed to get support from the report as worries over coronavirus dominated the charts at the time
Overall risk sentiment
- Updates on coronavirus cases, drug or vaccine prospects, and policy responses will continue to affect the high-yielding comdoll’s prices
- Tier 1 events, such as the U.S. NFP, RBA’s policy statement, and China’s trade data can also impact NZD’s trading
- Escalating fears of a renewed U.S.-China trade war can continue to weigh on NZD’s prices
Technical snapshot
- Williams %R considers NZD as “oversold” against EUR and CHF on the daily time frame
- Short and long-term SMAs point to NZD being in bearish trends against EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, and USD
- Kiwi is still on a bullish trend against CAD but we could see retracements soon
- Watch out for a short-term retracement or a longer-term reversal against AUD
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for April 27 – May 1!
