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The Aussie is in for a busy week with RBA’s decision AND a bunch of Chinese data on the docket. Which events will move the comdoll the most?

Here’s a short list of the potential catalysts:

RBA’s policy statement (May 5, 4:30 am GMT)

  • As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rates at 0.25% in April
  • The decision as well as stimulus talks (RBNZ expands QE, U.S. hints of more stimulus) boosted AUD to the top of the forex heap during the Asian session
  • Markets don’t expect policy changes from RBA this week though we could see forward guidance and economic outlook

Lower-tier economic reports

  • ANZ’s job ads (May 4, 1:30 am GMT) last printed at -10.3% in March
  • AIG’s construction (May 4, 10:30 pm GMT) and services PMIs (May 6, 10:40 pm GMT) are expected to take more hits in April
  • Stockpiling is expected to boost retail sales (May 6, 1:30 am GMT) by 8.0% in March
  • Trade surplus (May 7, 1:30 am GMT) could widen from 4.36M to 4.5M AUD in March

China’s data releases

  • Caixin’s services PMI (May 7, 1:45 am GMT) could improve from 43.0 to 50.5 in April
  • Trade surplus (May 7, Asian session) is expected to narrow down from 19.9B to 15.8B as both annualized exports (-9.5%) and imports (-10.0%) are expected to fall in April

Market risk appetite

  • Updates on coronavirus cases, government responses, and drug or vaccine prospects can continue to affect AUD’s trades
  • U.S.-China trade war talks will weigh on AUD’s prices if they escalate
  • Top-tier reports from other countries such as labor market data from the U.S. and Canada, BOE’s policy decision, and New Zealand’s quarterly data can also affect AUD’s price action

Technical snapshot

  • AUD has lost pips against ALL of its major counterparts in the last seven days

  • Stochastic is flagging AUD’s “overbought” conditions against CAD on the daily time frame

  • AUD as seen the most volatility against EUR, GBP, CHF, and JPY in the last seven days

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for April 27 – May 1!