The FOMC decision AND GDP release are around the corner!
Think you’re ready to trade the dollar?
Here are possible catalysts that can move the Greenback this week:
Advance GDP release (Apr 29, 12:30 pm GMT)
- The very first reading of Uncle Sam’s Q1 2020 GDP is expected to show a 2.3% dip after seeing 2.1% growth in Q4 2019
- Remember that most businesses didn’t close until mid-March, which should lead to minimal disruption in the official Q1 growth numbers
FOMC statement (Apr 29. 6:00 pm GMT)
- Market players aren’t expecting major policy changes from Governor Powell and his team this week
- We could see updates on the Fed’s existing stimulus programs, hints of future easing measures, and the members’ outlook on the near- and medium-term economic growth
- Powell will conduct a presser at 6:30 pm GMT
Other closely watched economic data
- Initial jobless claims (Apr 30, 12:30 pm GMT), which has reflected 22 million new claimants in the last five weeks, is expected to add another 3.5 million to its numbers this week
- ISM’s manufacturing PMI (May 1, 2:00 pm GMT) could drop from 49.1 to 39.0 in April
Market risk appetite
- 140 S&P 500 companies including Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, ExxonMobil, and McDonalds are slated to print quarterly reports this week. Weak reports can influence future GDP estimates and dollar demand
- Coronavirus updates and their impact on plans to reopen key U.S. states can affect the dollar’s price action
- Closely watched releases like the BOJ and ECB’s policy updates, as well as PMIs from China and the euro one, can also influence demand for safe havens like the dollar
- USD has gained pips only against EUR and CHF in the last 30 days
- USD lost the most pips against AUD, followed (loosely) by NZD
- Williams %R considers USD as “oversold” against JPY
- USD has been most volatile against AUD, NZD, and GBP in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for April 20 – 24!