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Weak economic reports put Kiwi on the bearish zone until near the end of the week when risk appetite dictated market sentiment.

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for April 20 – 24!

Can Kiwi bulls sustain their momentum? Here are the potential catalysts that you need to know about!

Trade balance (Apr 28, 10:45 pm GMT)

  • New Zealand bounced from a 413M deficit in January to a 594M NZD surplus in February
  • Exports jumped by 4.5% from a year earlier while imports dropped by 9.9%
  • The release could have caused a higher bounce if New Zealand hadn’t also been preparing for a lockdown at the time
  • Analysts see the trade surplus widening to 700M NZD in March

ANZ business confidence (Apr 30, 1:00 am GMT)

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) pays close attention to business sentiment data like ANZ’s
  • The index fell by 9 points to -73% in April, with ALL key activity indicators lower than March’s readings
  • ANZ’s data will be printed around the time of China’s PMIs, so expect some volatility

Market risk sentiment

  • Coronavirus-related headlines and expectations of shorter (or longer) lockdown periods will continue to affect overall risk-taking
  • Top-tier reports from Australia (CPI) and China (PMIs) – New Zealand’s top trading partners – can also affect NZD’s price action
  • Monetary policy decisions from the BOJ, Fed, and the ECB can influence the markets’ appetite for risk

Technical snapshot

  • Williams %R considers NZD as “oversold” against AUD
  • NZD could be “overbought” against GBP on the daily time frame

  • NZD is starting to see bullish momentum on the shorter time frames
  • NZD could see reversals against EUR and CAD as soon as it trades above the 200 EMAs
  • NZD could see retracements or reversals against CHF, JPY, or USD