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All eyes and ears are on the ECB policy decision this week! Is the central bank bound to announce another batch of stimulus?

The euro and the franc were off to a good start last week as the crude oil crash ushered in risk-off flows.

However, both gave up most of their gains when risk-taking resumed later on, eventually ending net negative.

Missed last week’s price action? Check out the EUR & CHF price review for April 20 – 24!

Here’s what you should look out for next:

Preliminary euro zone data

  • German import prices and CPI (Apr. 29, 7:00 am GMT) to reflect weaker inflationary pressures
  • French flash GDP (Apr. 30, 6:30 am GMT) to print 4.0% contraction
  • German retail sales (Apr. 30, 7:00 am GMT) to show 8.4% slump in spending
  • French consumer spending and preliminary CPI (Apr. 30, 7:45 am GMT)
  • Spanish flash GDP (Apr. 30, 8:00 am GMT) to show 4.2% contraction
  • German unemployment change (Apr. 30, 8:55 am GMT) to show 75K increase in joblessness
  • Euro zone preliminary GDP (Apr. 30, 10:00 am GMT) to show 3.5% contraction
  • Euro zone flash CPI (Apr. 30, 10:00 am GMT) to show 0.1% uptick in headline figure, 0.7% increase in core reading

ECB policy decision (Apr. 30, 12:45 pm GMT)

  • No actual changes to interest rate expected for now
  • Central bank just launched its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program a little over a month ago
  • Bloomberg poll found that one in four respondents expect ECB to boost bond purchases by 250 billion EUR
  • Median forecast is that policymakers might wait until the middle of the year to step up easing efforts
  • Chairperson Lagarde to give a press conference at 1:30 pm GMT

Overall market sentiment

  • The euro and franc were able to benefit from a surge in risk aversion after crude oil staged a historic drop to negative levels recently.
  • Another pickup in risk-off flows could prove bullish for these lower-yielding European currencies again while improving appetite for risk could keep a lid on gains.
  • Updates on the global COVID-19 situation, as well as stimulus efforts from governments and central banks, continue to impact market sentiment.

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic reveals that most euro pairs are in neutral to bullish territory.
EUR Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • Among the bunch, EUR/AUD is looking most oversold, followed by EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF.
  • Moving averages, however, put EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF in bearish territory, along with EUR/USD.
EUR Forex Pairs Moving Averages from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs Moving Averages from MarketMilk
  • As for CHF pairs, most are on bearish grounds based on their moving averages.
CHF Forex Pairs Moving Averages from MarketMilk
CHF Forex Pairs Moving Averages from MarketMilk