USD Weekly Forecast (Mar. 16 – 20)

The Fed sure started its week with a big bang! What else can move the dollar in the next few days? Here’s a list.

Retail sales (Mar 17, 12:30 pm GMT)

• Headline retail sales gained 0.3% in January
• December’s numbers revised lower from 0.3% to 0.2%
• Core retail sales also slowed down from 0.6% to 0.3%
• USD slipped across the board at the news
• Headline and core retail sales expected to slow down from 0.3% to 0.2% in February

Lower-tier economic data

• New York manufacturing index (Mar 16, 12:30 pm GMT) expected to drop from 12.9 to 6.1 in March
• Industrial production (Mar 17, 1:15 pm GMT) could gain by 0.4% after 0.3% dip in January
• Building permits (Mar 18, 12:30 pm GMT) to dip from 1.55M to 1.50M in February?
• Philly Fed manufacturing index (Mar 19, 12:30 pm GMT) expected to plummet from 36.7 to 10.2 in March

Technical snapshot

• RSI considers USD as “overbought” against GBP, AUD, NZD, and CAD on the daily time frame

• USD is trading above its short and long-term SMAs against GBP, AUD, NZD, and CAD
• USD is trading below its short and long-term SMAs against EUR, and CHF

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for March 9 – 13!