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Can the Aussie recover from its heavy losses from last week? Here’s a list of market themes that might affect the comdoll’s prices.

Labor market data (Mar 19, 12:30 am GMT)

  • Unemployment rate jumped from 5.1% to 5.3% in January
  • A net of 13,500 jobs were added vs 10,000 expected and 28,700 in December
  • Full-time employment edged 46,200 higher while part-time jobs dipped by 32,700
  • Participation rate inched 0.1% higher to 66.1%
  • COVID-19 cases in South Korea nearly doubling and the unexpected jump in unemployment rate dragged AUD lower during the Asian session
  • Analysts see a net gain of 10,000 in February
  • Unemployment and participation rates are expected to remain at 5.3% and 66.1% respectively

China’s data dump

  • Industrial production (Mar 16, 2:00 am GMT) could dip by 3.0% from a 6.9% gain in January
  • Fixed asset investment (Mar 16, 2:00 am GMT) is seen at -2.0% after a 5.4% increase
  • Retail sales (y/y) (Mar 16, 2:00 am GMT) is expected to drop by 4.0% from an 8.0% gain in the previous month
  • PBoC’s 1-year loan prime rate (Mar 20, 1:30 am GMT) could dip from 4.05% to 4.00%
  • PBOC’s 5-year loan prime rate (Mar 20, 1:30 am GMT) to dip from 4.75% to 4.70%?

Overall risk sentiment

  • COVID-19 updates and their impact on the global economy will continue to dictate AUD’s weekly trends
  • Scheduled and unscheduled central bank interventions should also cause volatility spikes for high-yielding currencies like AUD
  • Top-tier events such as U.S.’ retail sales, Canada’s CPI and retail sales, and New Zealand’s GDP reports can affect AUD’s intraday price movements

Technical snapshot

  • AUD has lost the most pips against EUR, CHF, and JPY in the last 30 days
  • AUD has lost the least pips against NZD, GBP, and CAD

  • RSI considers AUD as “oversold” against all major currencies but GBP on the daily time frame

  • AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, and AUD/USD are all trading below their short AND long-term EMAs on the daily
  • EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are trading above their short AND long-term EMAs on the daily

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for March 9 – 13!