AUD Weekly Forecast (Mar. 16 – 20)

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Can the Aussie recover from its heavy losses from last week? Here’s a list of market themes that might affect the comdoll’s prices.

Labor market data (Mar 19, 12:30 am GMT)

Unemployment rate jumped from 5.1% to 5.3% in January
A net of 13,500 jobs were added vs 10,000 expected and 28,700 in December
Full-time employment edged 46,200 higher while part-time jobs dipped by 32,700
Participation rate inched 0.1% higher to 66.1%
COVID-19 cases in South Korea nearly doubling and the unexpected jump in unemployment rate dragged AUD lower during the Asian session
Analysts see a net gain of 10,000 in February
Unemployment and participation rates are expected to remain at 5.3% and 66.1% respectively

Industrial production (Mar 16, 2:00 am GMT) could dip by 3.0% from a 6.9% gain in January
Fixed asset investment (Mar 16, 2:00 am GMT) is seen at -2.0% after a 5.4% increase
Retail sales (y/y) (Mar 16, 2:00 am GMT) is expected to drop by 4.0% from an 8.0% gain in the previous month
PBoC’s 1-year loan prime rate (Mar 20, 1:30 am GMT) could dip from 4.05% to 4.00%
PBOC’s 5-year loan prime rate (Mar 20, 1:30 am GMT) to dip from 4.75% to 4.70%?

COVID-19 updates and their impact on the global economy will continue to dictate AUD’s weekly trends
Scheduled and unscheduled central bank interventions should also cause volatility spikes for high-yielding currencies like AUD
Top-tier events such as U.S.’ retail sales, Canada’s CPI and retail sales, and New Zealand’s GDP reports can affect AUD’s intraday price movements

RSI considers AUD as “oversold” against all major currencies but GBP on the daily time frame

AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, and AUD/USD are all trading below their short AND long-term EMAs on the daily
EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are trading above their short AND long-term EMAs on the daily

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for March 9 – 13!