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Can the Aussie recover from its heavy losses from last week? Here’s a list of market themes that might affect the comdoll’s prices.
Labor market data (Mar 19, 12:30 am GMT)
- Unemployment rate jumped from 5.1% to 5.3% in January
- A net of 13,500 jobs were added vs 10,000 expected and 28,700 in December
- Full-time employment edged 46,200 higher while part-time jobs dipped by 32,700
- Participation rate inched 0.1% higher to 66.1%
- COVID-19 cases in South Korea nearly doubling and the unexpected jump in unemployment rate dragged AUD lower during the Asian session
- Analysts see a net gain of 10,000 in February
- Unemployment and participation rates are expected to remain at 5.3% and 66.1% respectively
China’s data dump
- Industrial production (Mar 16, 2:00 am GMT) could dip by 3.0% from a 6.9% gain in January
- Fixed asset investment (Mar 16, 2:00 am GMT) is seen at -2.0% after a 5.4% increase
- Retail sales (y/y) (Mar 16, 2:00 am GMT) is expected to drop by 4.0% from an 8.0% gain in the previous month
- PBoC’s 1-year loan prime rate (Mar 20, 1:30 am GMT) could dip from 4.05% to 4.00%
- PBOC’s 5-year loan prime rate (Mar 20, 1:30 am GMT) to dip from 4.75% to 4.70%?
Overall risk sentiment
- COVID-19 updates and their impact on the global economy will continue to dictate AUD’s weekly trends
- Scheduled and unscheduled central bank interventions should also cause volatility spikes for high-yielding currencies like AUD
- Top-tier events such as U.S.’ retail sales, Canada’s CPI and retail sales, and New Zealand’s GDP reports can affect AUD’s intraday price movements
Technical snapshot
- AUD has lost the most pips against EUR, CHF, and JPY in the last 30 days
- AUD has lost the least pips against NZD, GBP, and CAD
- RSI considers AUD as “oversold” against all major currencies but GBP on the daily time frame
- AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, and AUD/USD are all trading below their short AND long-term EMAs on the daily
- EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are trading above their short AND long-term EMAs on the daily
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for March 9 – 13!