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Countercurrency flows gave the Loonie some wins last week. Which catalysts can influence the comdoll in the next few days?

CPI (Mar 18, 12:30 pm GMT)

  • Consumer prices rose by 2.4% from a year ago in January (2.3% expected)
  • The data, together with higher oil prices, boosted CAD against USD when all other comdolls were weak
  • Analysts see a 2.1% annualized uptick in February
  • Monthly CPI could increase from 0.3% to 0.4%

Retail sales (Mar 20, 12:30 pm GMT)

  • Retail sales was unchanged in December after a 1.1% gain in November (0.1% expected)
  • Retail sales is up by 1.6% in the whole of 2019, the smallest rise since 2009
  • CAD scored gains against USD and AUD but lost against its other major counterparts
  • Market players expect a 0.4% increase in headline retail sales
  • Core retail sales could slow down from 0.5% to 0.2% in January

Overall risk appetite

 

  • COVID-19 updates will continue to impact CAD’s intraweek trends
  • Crude oil prices, which is sensitive to global authority responses, can also affect the Loonie’s price movements
  • Scheduled and unscheduled monetary and fiscal policy announcements from major economies can cause intraday volatility among CAD pairs

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers CAD as “overbought” against AUD and “oversold” against CHF and USD

  • CAD seems to be holding up against AUD, NZD, and GBP but is weak against its other major counterparts
  • GBP/CAD is “bullish but weakening” on the longer-term SMAs and “bearish” on the short-term. Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on the daily time frame

Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for March 9 – 13!