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The start of another month means we get to trade the dollar during NFP week!

Here are themes you should pay attention to if you’re trading the dollar in the next few days:

Leading indicators for the NFP release

  • ISM’s manufacturing PMI (Mar 2, 3:00 pm GMT) is expected to dip into contractionary territory in February
  • ADP report (Mar 4, 1:15 pm GMT) could fall from 291,000 to 170,000 for the month
  • Markit’s services PMI (Mar 4, 2:45 pm GMT) is expected to maintain its 49.4 figure
  • ISM’s services PMI (Mar 4, 3:00 pm GMT) is seen maintaining its 55.5 reading

Non-farm payrolls (Mar 6, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • A net of 225,000 jobs were added in January, higher than December’s 147,000 increase and the 160,000 uptick that markets had expected
  • Unemployment rate inched higher from 3.5% to 3.6% while average hourly earnings only improved by 0.2% when analysts saw a 0.3% increase
  • USD weakened for a while against its counterparts but coronavirus concerns eventually lifted it back up to its intraday uptrend
  • Analysts see a 190,000 net jobs increase in February
  • Unemployment rate could remain at 3.6%
  • Average hourly earnings is expected to pick up from 0.2% to 0.3%

FOMC member speeches

  • Recall that Governor Powell opened the door to a March rate cut last Friday on the back of “evolving risks” posed by the coronavirus
  • Loretta Mester (Mar 3, 7:50 pm GMT) is giving a speech before professional economists in London
  • Robert Kaplan (Mar 5, 11:30 pm GMT) could answer audience questions in Chicago
  • Neel Kashkari (Mar 6, 1:00 am GMT) will be in a panel discussion in Minnesota
  • John Williams (Mar 6, 1:45 am GMT) will speak in a dinner engagement in New York

Technical snapshot

  • USD has been strongest against NZD, GBP, and AUD in the last 30 days
  • USD has only lost pips against JPY in the last 30 days

  • USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are all trading below their short AND long-term EMAs on the daily time frame
  • USD/CAD is trading above its short AND long-term EMAs
  • EUR/USD is trading below its 200 EMA but above its shorter-term EMAs on the daily

  • USD has shown the most volatility against AUD, NZD, GBP, and JPY in the last 30 days

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for February 24 – 28!