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Market risk aversion made the yen top boss last week. Can this week’s market themes knock it lower?

Here are potential catalysts to watch:

Consumer-related reports

  • Household confidence (Mar 3, 5:00 am GMT) could tick lower from 39.1 to 38.4 in February
  • Average cash earnings (Mar 5, 11:30 pm GMT) is expected to grow by 0.2% January after a 0.0% growth in December
  • Household spending (Mar 5, 11:30 pm GMT) is seen at -3.9% from its -4.8% reading in December
  • Leading indicators (Mar 5, 11:30 pm GMT) could dip from 91.6% to 91.3%

Market risk sentiment

  • COVID-19 updates and their impact on global economic activity will continue to affect demand for the safe haven yen
  • Top-tier data releases such as the U.S. NFP, PMIs, central banker statements, and OPEC’s meeting can also influence JPY’s intraweek trends
  • Watch out for potential profit-taking from last week’s strong one-directional price movements

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging JPY’s “overbought” conditions against AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, and USD

  • JPY has been most volatile against AUD, NZD, GBP, and CAD in the last 30 days

  • CHF/JPY and GBP/JPY are trading above their 200 SMA but below their shorter-term SMAs. Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities
  • The rest of the major yen pairs (AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY, and USD/JPY) are trading below their short AND long-term SMAs on the daily

Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for February 24 – 28!