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Can the dollar sustain is uptrend? Here are catalysts that could change the tides for the Greenback!

FOMC-related events

  • The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes (Feb 19, 7:00 pm GMT) could provide clues on what members think about the balance sheet, inflation trends, Coronavirus threats, and other downside risks
  • FOMC member Neil Kashkari (Feb 18, 7:00 pm GMT) will give a speech in Minnesota
  • FOMC member Loretta Mester (Feb 19, 1:30 pm GMT) will be in a forum in Philadelphia
  • Kashkari will return with another speech in Minnesota (Feb 20, 4:45 pm GMT)
  • FOMC member Robert Kaplan (Feb 19, 6:30 pm GMT) will give a speech titled “View from the Fed” in Dallas
  • FOMC member Lael Brainard (Feb 21, 3:15 pm GMT) will discuss monetary policy for the next recession in New York
  • FOMC member Richard Clarida (Feb 21, 6:30 pm GMT) will participate in a panel discussion in New York

Markit manufacturing PMIs

  • Markit’s manufacturing PMI is seen at 51.5 after printing at 51.9 in January
  • The services PMI could improve from 53.3 to 53.5 in February
  • Keep an eye out for their employment components, which could factor in the next NFP release

Can the dollar sustain its uptrend?

  • Risk aversion and a strong U.S. equities market have boosted USD demand for most of February
  • Will we see retracements or reversals this week?

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic has flagged USD as “overbought” against EUR, JPY, and CHF on the daily time frame

  • USD/CHF is “bearish but weakening” with the longer-term SMAs and “bullish” on the shorter-term SMAs. Watch out for possible retracements or reversals