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Australia is printing RBA’s meeting minutes and labor market numbers this week! What can you expect from the events?

RBA’s meeting minutes (Feb 18, 12:30 am GMT)

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its rates unchanged as expected, adopted a wait-and-see approach to Coronavirus concerns
  • AUD popped higher on RBA’s unchanged sentiments and lack of alarm over Coronavirus
  • Some analysts still see a rate cut this year and this week’s meeting minutes could give hints on RBA’s schedule

Labor market numbers (Feb 20, 12:30 am GMT)

  • Australia added a net of 28,900 jobs in December, lower than the 38,500 addition in November but higher than the 15,000 expected increase
  • Jobless rate dipped to a nine-month low of 5.1% and participation rate was unchanged a 66.0%
  • AUD hit its intraweek highs but lost its ground during the U.S. session
  • Analysts see the economy adding a net of 10,000 jobs in January
  • Markets expect the unemployment and participation rates to remain unchanged at 5.1% and 66.0% respectively

Markit PMIs (Feb 20, 10:00 pm GMT)

  • Markit’s manufacturing PMI could dip from 49.6 to 48.9 in February
  • Services PMI is expected to improve from 50.6 to 52.4 for the month

Market risk appetite

  • The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) just cut its loan prime rate by 10 basis points to 3.15% amidst Coronavirus concerns
  • PMI reports from the U.S. and euro zone, as well as meeting minutes from FOMC and ECB can affect overall risk taking in the markets
  • Coronavirus updates can also influence demand for the export-dependent AUD

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging AUD’s “overbought” conditions against CHF and EUR on the daily time frame

  • AUD/NZD is trading above its 50 SMA but below its 200 SMA. Watch out for potential retracements or reversals