JPY Weekly Forecast (Feb. 17 – 21)

Japan has a busy data calendar this week! Which events should you pay attention to? Here’s a list!

Preliminary GDP

• Japan’s economy shrank at its fastest pace in 6 years, virus clouds outlook

Production-related reports

• Industrial production (Feb 17, 4:30 am GMT) is expected to maintain its 1.3% reading in December
• Core machinery orders (Feb 18, 11:50 pm GMT) could decline by 2.0% after a 5.3% gain in November
• Markit’s manufacturing PMI (Feb 21, 12:30 am GMT) was revised lower from 49.3 to 48.8 in January

Trade balance data (Feb 18, 11:50 pm GMT)

• Japan’s trade deficit is expected to significantly widen in January
• Exports is expected to decline by 7.0% after a 6.3% slip in December
• Imports could fall by another 2.0% after a 4.9% decrease in December

Market risk sentiment

• Coronavirus concerns can continue to affect overall risk taking in the markets
• Meeting minutes from the RBA, ECB, and FOMC could also influence market risk appetite

Technical snapshot

• Stochastic considers JPY as “overbought” against CHF and EUR and “oversold” against USD, GBP, and CAD

• EUR/JPY is trading below is short and long-term SMAs. AUD/JPY is also close to having the same conditions
• GBP/JPY is trading above is short and long-term SMAs. USD/JPY is close to having the same conditions
• CHF/JPY and NZD/JPY are trading above their 200 SMAs but below their 5, 20, and 50 SMAs. Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities