It’s the first full trading week of the year! What catalysts can move the dollar in the next few days? Here’s a list!

NFP numbers and their leading indicators

  • Jobs shot up by 266,000 in November, higher than the expected 187,000 increase
  • Unemployment rate dipped from 3.6% to 2019’s low of 3.5% and matching the lowest rate since 1969
  • Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% vs 0.3% expected and 0.4% gain in October
  • USD shot up against its counterparts and saw some profit-taking near the end of the day
  • Analysts see the headline NFP at 168,000 in December
  • Unemployment rate is seen to remain at 3.5%
  • Average hourly earnings could print a 0.3% increase
  • ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI (Jan 7, 3:00 pm GMT) could improve from 53.9 to 54.5 in December
  • The ADP report (Jan 8, 1:15 pm GMT) is seen at 165K vs. its 67K print in November

U.S.-Iran tensions

  • ICYMI, Iraq’s parliament voted to boot out U.S. troops while Iran no longer considers itself bound by the 2015 nuclear deal after last week’s U.S. attack on a top Iran military commander
  • Further escalation in tensions could boost safe havens such as USD and JPY

Technical snapshot

  • USD has traded higher against all its counterparts except CAD and JPY in the last 7 days

  • RSI considers USD as “oversold” against CAD on the daily time frame

  • USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD are all trading under its short AND long-term EMAs on the daily
  • EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are trading above their 20, 50, and 200 EMAs but below their 5 EMAs
  • GBP/USD is trading above its long-term EMAs but below its shorter-term EMAs. Watch out for a potential retracement or reversal