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The Land Down Under has a couple of top-tier reports on tap this week? Which do you think will affect AUD the most?

Here’s a list of reports and themes you should watch out for:

AIG’s indices

  • AIG’s manufacturing index improved from 48.1 to 48.3 in December and marked its first back-to-back contraction since mid-2015
  • Will AIG’s construction index (Jan 7, 9:30 pm GMT) follow suit? It dipped from 43.9 to 40.0 in November
  • AIG’s services index (Jan 9, 9:30 pm GMT) also fell from 54.2 to 53.7 in November

Trade balance (Jan 9, 12:30 am GMT)

  • Australia’s trade surplus narrowed from 6.85B AUD to 4.50B AUD in October, the smallest since December 2018
  • Exports fell by 5.0% while imports inched 0.4% higher
  • AUD weakened against its major counterparts for most of the day
  • Analysts see the surplus narrowing further to 4.20B AUD in November

Retail sales (Jan 10, 12:30 am GMT)

  • Retail trading was flat in October, lower than September’s 0.2% gain and the 0.3% increase that many had expected
  • The weak numbers helped weaken AUD against its counterparts for most of the day
  • Market geeks expect retail activity to improve by 0.4% in November

Technical snapshot

  • AUD has been weakest against CAD and JPY and strongest against NZD for the past week

  • Stochastic flags AUD as “overbought” against EUR on the daily time frame

  • Williams %R considers AUD as “oversold” against CAD and JPY on the daily time frame

  • AUD/CAD and AUD/CHF are trading below short AND long-term SMAs on the daily time frame
  • AUD/JPY is trading above long-term SMAs but below short-term SMAs
  • GBP/AUD is trading above its 200 SMA but trading below the 50, 20, and 5 SMAs. Watch out for a potential longer-term reversal