Better-than-expected U.S. data saved the dollar from the pits last week. Can this week’s set push the Greenback higher across the board?
FOMC members’ speeches
One look at the forex calendar will tell you that the FOMC’s voting members will be busy making speeches this week.
Eric Rosengren, who’s in favor of the Fed pausing its rate hike spree, has a speech in Hong Kong scheduled tomorrow at 1:30 am GMT. Charles Evans, who believes that the Fed might have to ease policies if 2019’s forecasts disappoint, has an event scheduled in Hong Kong on March 26 at 11:30 am GMT.
Esther George, who’s also a fan of pausing the Fed’s rate hike schedule, has a speech due March 27 at 10:30 pm GMT in New York. Randal Quarles, who’s relatively upbeat on the economy, will hold the mike in Frankfurt on March 28 at 12:15 pm GMT and on March 29 at 5:00 pm GMT in New York.
Richard Clarida, who also favors the “patient” approach, is speaking in Paris on March 28 at 2:30 pm GMT. Meanwhile, Michelle Bowman, also a fan of the “wait-and-see” plan, will be in New Mexico on March 28 at 3:00 pm GMT.
Last but not the least, James Bullard, another dove in the FOMC gang, will give a speech in Madison on March 28 at 10:20 pm GMT.
Given how surprised the markets are with the Fed’s decision to erase the two rate hikes that it had penciled in back in December, remarks by the voting members will be closely watched this week.
Final GDP (Mar 28, 1:30 pm GMT)
Uncle Sam’s advance GDP came in at 2.6%, better than the 2.2% increase that analysts were expecting.
While it was slower than the previous quarter’s 3.4% gain, details also revealed the strength in consumer and government spending as well as the improvement of exports from -4.9% to +1.6%.
Thing is, analysts expect the 2.6% growth to whittle down to 2.4% in its final reading due to the partial government shutdown.
A better-than-expected final reading would support speculations that the shutdown didn’t have much impact on economic activity.
A much lower revision, on the other hand, would encourage investigations on the other factors that might have dragged on the economy.
Lower-tier economic reports
While they don’t usually move the dollar’s prices for long, this week’s string of lower-tier releases could inspire intraday volatility for the Greenback.
Building permits data (Mar 26, 1:30 pm GMT) is expected to maintain their 1.32M reading in February; the CB consumer confidence (Mar 26, 3:00 pm GMT) could inch higher from 131.4 to 132.00.
Next, Uncle Sam’s trade balance (Mar 27, 1:30 pm GMT) is expected to show a slightly narrower trade deficit of $57.3B from December’s $59.8B reading and pending home sales (Mar 28, 3:00 pm GMT) is expected to slow down from 4.6% to 0.5% in February.
And then there’s the data dump on Friday, which is expected to show the core PCE price index (1:30 pm GMT) maintaining its 0.2% rate; Chicago PMI (2:45 pm GMT) slowing down from 64.7 to 61.9; the UoM consumer sentiment index (3:00 pm GMT) remaining at 97.8, and new home sales (3:00 pm GMT)inching up from 607K to 625K in February.
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for March 18 – 22!