After last week’s disappointing finish, does the shared currency have any shot at redemption? Here’s what’s coming up this week.
German Ifo Business Climate (Mar. 25, 9:00 am GMT)
The euro zone’s top economy will be printing the results of its Ifo Business Climate survey among manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, services, and retailers.
For the month of March, the reading is expected to tick higher from 98.5 to 98.7 to reflect a slight improvement in overall business conditions. Now the index has been declining since September last year, so even the slightest bounce could be positive news.
Keep in mind that the survey has a pretty large sample size of 7,000 respondents and that its results are highly-correlated to the region’s actual economic performance. Seeing how the latest round of PMIs fared last week, however, suggests that another disappointment might be in the cards.
ECB Governor Draghi’s speech (Mar. 27, 8:00 am GMT)
The ECB head honcho is due to speak at the ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt.
In his previous speech, Draghi already talked about how growth forecasts are looking grim and that risks are still tilted to the downside. Another round of downbeat remarks, especially with the latest batch of PMI readings taken into account, could drag the shared currency further south.
Trade tensions might also come up as U.S. President Trump hinted at the possibility of imposing auto tariffs on Europe. To top it off, political risks leading up to elections might also be discussed.
Medium-tier leading indicators (starting Mar. 28)
The latter part of the week is filled with a handful of preliminary reports from the region’s top economies. These medium-tier releases don’t usually spur strong reactions from euro pairs but are still worth watching since they could give good clues for the major reports due later on.
Germany will be printing its flash CPI reading on Thursday’s London session and might show a 0.6% gain after the earlier 0.4% increase. After that, Spain will release its preliminary CPI report and might also indicate slightly stronger inflationary pressures, with the reading slated to climb from 1.1% to 1.4%.
On Friday, German retail sales, unemployment change, and import prices data are due. France will also be printing its consumer spending report and preliminary CPI, which might improve from the earlier flat reading to 0.9%.
Missed last week’s price action? Read the EUR & CHF price review for March 18-22.