Partner Center Find a Broker

What did Governor Powell and his gang talk about in their last meeting? Will it affect the dollar’s intraweek trends in any way?

I have a list of potential catalysts that you won’t want to miss if you’re planning on trading the dollar in the next couple of days!

FOMC meeting minutes (Feb 17, 7:00 pm GMT)

  • After their meeting in late January, Fed Governor Powell shared that it’s “too early to focus on tapering dates” even as they remain optimistic over the reopening of the economy
  • USD rallied at the time, but that was mostly because traders were staying away from riskier bets as Reddit-inspired moves are inspiring fears that big players like hedge funds would need to liquidate to cover their “meme stocks” losses
  • Watch out for any members wanting to talk about tapering, which could boost USD against its counterparts

Closely watched economic releases

  • NY manufacturing index (Feb 16, 1:30 pm GMT) to improve from 3.5 to 5.3 in February
  • Retail sales (Feb 17, 1:30 pm GMT) to print at 0.9% (from -0.7%) in January
  • Core retail sales could rebound by 0.7% after a 1.4% dip
  • Annual PPI (Feb 17, 1:30 pm GMT) to remain at 0.8%, while the core figure could speed up from 1.2% to 1.3%
  • Industrial production (Feb 17, 2:15 pm GMT) seen slowing down from 1.6% to 0.5%
  • Philly Fed manufacturing index (Feb 18, 1:30 pm GMT) to print at 23.0 after 26.5 reading in January
  • Initial jobless claims (Feb 18, 1:30 pm GMT) expected to drop from 793K to 765K
  • Markit’s manufacturing PMI (Feb 19, 2:45 pm GMT) could dip from 59.2 to 57.5 in February

Overall dollar demand

  • Traders could turn their focus back on the stimulus bill that’s widely expected to pass. Headlines on its progress could boost risk appetite and weigh on the safe-haven dollar
  • U.S. Treasury yields will continue to matter for USD and gold traders

Technical snapshot

  • The dollar is about to hit “oversold” RSI levels against the pound
  • USD/JPY could soon reach “overbought” RSI levels on the daily
  • The dollar remains near neutral levels against the franc and the euro
USD Forex Pairs RSI from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs RSI from MarketMilk
  • EMAs reflect the dollar’s short and long-term bearish trends against most of its major counterparts
  • USD/JPY is still trading below the 200 EMA, but watch the moving average in case the short-term bullish momentum translates to a longer-term uptrend
USD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • The dollar has seen the most volatility against the comdolls and the pound in the last seven days
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for Feb. 8 – 12!