Australia’s data calendar is pretty busy this week with the RBA, PMI, and labor market reports scheduled for release.
What should you watch out for from these events?
I’ve listed some points!
RBA’s meeting minutes (Feb 16, 12:30 am GMT)
- Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expanded its quantitative easing program by another 100B AUD and signaled that it won’t raise its rates at least until 2024
- The meeting minutes could tell us which key factors central bankers are looking at to warrant any policy changes
- Further dovishness from the RBA could limit AUD’s upside moves and put it at a disadvantage against other high-yielding currencies
Employment data (Feb 18, 12:30 am GMT)
- A net of 50,000 workers had found jobs in December, reflecting broad recovery as both part-time and full-time laborers had found work
- The unemployment rate slid from 6.8% to 6.6%, the lowest since April 2020
- AUD jumped across the board and hit its intraday highs at the news
- Markets see another 30,000 net job additions in January
- The jobless rate could ease further to 6.5% while the participation rate is seen remaining at 66.2%
Overall appetite for AUD
- China – Australia’s largest trading partner – is on bank holidays for the first half of the week which could limit AUD’s volatility
- AUD could lose some of its shine as Victoria implements a circuit-breaker lockdown. Speculations of an extended lockdown might trigger growth concerns and weigh on AUD
- Mid-tier data releases like Australia’s manufacturing PMI (Feb 18, 10:00 pm GMT) and retail sales (Feb 19, 12:30 am GMT) are expected to show stronger numbers than their previous readings
- Vaccination, lockdown, and stimulus news from the other major economies can influence the overall demand for the high-yielding Aussie
- AUD/JPY has hit the daily Bollinger Bands’ “overbought” zones
- AUD is also leaning towards overbought conditions against its other major counterparts
- Simple moving averages reflect the Aussie’s short and long-term bullish trends against every major currency but the pound
- Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on GBP/AUD
- Like the Kiwi, the Aussie saw the most volatility against the safe-havens and the pound in the last seven days