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A lack of bigger potential catalysts around the world can put the spotlight on Japan’s economic releases this week.

Which market themes should you pay attention to?

I’ve got a list right here!

Mid-tier data releases

  • Japan’s economic recovery slows as pandemic pain lingers
  • Final industrial production (Feb 15, 4:30 am GMT) seen at -3.2% vs. -3.9% initial reading
  • Core machinery orders (Feb 16, 11:50 pm GMT) to drop by 4.0% (from +1.5%), with annual figures hitting -5.0% (from -11.3%)
  • Trade balance (Feb 16, 11:50 pm GMT) to show a 430B JPY deficit (from 751B JPY surplus) even as exports outpace imports
  • Inflation rate (Feb 18, 11:30 pm GMT) to print at -1.0% (from -1.2%)
  • Jibun’s manufacturing PMI (Feb 19, 12:30 am GMT) seen improving from 49.8 to 50.0

Overall risk appetite

  • Increased vaccination and stimulus hopes from around the world could continue to weigh on the safe-haven yen
  • USD/JPY remains sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields action
  • Fed and ECB events, as well as PMI releases from major economies, could expose the yen to countercurrency volatility

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging the yen’s “oversold” conditions against almost all of its major counterparts
  • USD/JPY remains in the neutral area on the daily
JPY Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • Moving averages reflect the yen’s short and long-term bearish trends across the board
  • JPY is still above the long-term 200 EMA but shorter-term averages suggest bearish pressure
JPY Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • The yen was most volatile against the comdolls and the pound in the last seven days
JPY Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for Feb. 8 – 12!