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Positive data propped Kiwi into positive territory last week. Which catalysts should you watch out for this week?

Trade balance (Jan 29, 9:45 pm GMT)

  • NZ’s trade deficit narrowed down for a third straight month in November, as annualized exports (+7.6%) outpaced imports (+2.0%)
  • NZD popped higher during the release, gave its gains back, and then climbed back to its intraday highs until the London session
  • Analysts expect New Zealand to return to trade surplus in December

Market risk sentiment

  • Coronavirus updates affected NZD prices last week. Keep your eyes peeled for escalating/easing concerns over its extent and potential economic impact
  • The European Parliament is expected to approve the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement on Wednesday and Britain is set to officially leave the EU this week
  • Central bank events like the FOMC and BOE’s policy statements can also affect overall market sentiment

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic identifies NZD as “overbought” against AUD and EUR on the daily time frame
  • Williams %R considers NZD as “oversold” against USD
  • Bollinger Bands flag NZD as “oversold” against JPY

  • AUD/NZD and NZD/CHF are below their short AND long-term SMAs on the daily. EUR/NZD is a hair’s breadth away from the same conditions
  • GBP/NZD is above its short AND long-term SMAs on the daily
  • NZD/CAD and NZD/USD are trade below their short-term SMAs but above their longer-term SMAs. Watch out for potential retracement or reversals

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for January 20 – 24!