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Mixed Australian data and market risk aversion dragged AUD lower last week. Check out the catalysts than can turn things around for the comdoll!

Quarterly CPI (Jan 29, 12:30 am GMT)

  • Quarterly inflation ticked lower from 0.6% to 0.5% in Q3 2019, while annualized prices climbed from 1.6% to 1.7
  • The dip in quarterly inflation wasn’t enough to inspire RBA rate cuts, so AUD still received broad support during the Asian session
  • Market players see annualized inflation remaining at 1.7% in Q4, while quarterly prices could accelerate from 0.5% to 0.6%

Quarterly PPI (Jan 31, 12:30 am GMT)

  • Producer prices increased 0.4% in Q3 2019, higher than the 0.3% uptick that markets had expected
  • AUD popped up and stayed up until the start of London session trading
  • Analysts expect a 0.3% growth in quarterly PPI in Q4 2019

China’s manufacturing PMIs (Jan 31, 1:00 am GMT)

  • Official manufacturing PMI stayed at 50.2 in December, which is higher than the 50.1 reading that analysts had expected
  • Manufacturing PMI is seen at 50.1 for the month of January
  • Official non-manufacturing PMI came in at 53.5, lower than November’s 54.4
  • Analysts expect non-manufacturing PMI to dip to 53.2 in January

Overall risk appetite

  • Top-tier events like the FOMC and BOE’s policy statements can affect overall market sentiment
  • Speculations of economic damages of Australia’s bushfires and Coronavirus can also weigh on AUD demand
  • The European Parliament is expected to approve the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement on Wednesday and Britain is set to officially leave the EU this week

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers AUD as “oversold” against NZD, GBP, USD, and CHF
  • Williams %R sees AUD as “oversold” against GBP, USD, CHF, and JPY
  • Bollinger Bands only supports the “AUD is oversold” theme against JPY

  • ALL major AUD pairs are trading below their short and long-term SMAs AND EMAs on the daily time frame

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for January 20 – 24!