An RBNZ decision boosted NZD higher before trade concerns weighed on the comdoll. Which catalysts would move the comdoll this week?
New Zealand won’t be printing tons of top-tier data, but these releases could move the comdoll by a pip or two over the next few days:
Quarterly PPI reports (Nov 18, 9:45 pm GMT)
- PPI input gained 0.3% in Q2 2019 vs -0.6% expected, -0.9% in Q1
- PPI output up by 0.5% in Q2 vs. -0.4% expected, -0.5% in Q1
- NZD spiked up at the release but was soon dragged by news that Trump wasn’t ready to make a deal with China just yet
- PPI input is expected at 0.5% for Q3 2019
- PPI output could print a 0.3% growth in Q3
Overall market sentiment
- Meeting minutes from the RBA, ECB, and the Fed could highlight the RBNZ’s decision to NOT cut its rates last week
- The PBoC is expected to lower its new loan prime rate (LPR) on Wednesday after unexpectedly injecting liquidity last Friday
- Chinese Vice Premier Liu He reportedly held a phone conversation with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin over the weekend. Eyes will be on whether the Trump admin can pull back some of its tariffs enough to secure a “phase one” deal before the December 15 tariffs kick in.
- NZD/GBP is bearish with SMAs across ALL time frames.
- NZD/JPY is bullish in the short-term but bearish with longer-term SMAs. Watch for retracement or reversal opportunities!
- NZD saw the most gains against AUD, USD, CAD, and EUR last week.
- NZD is currently weak against USD, CAD, and EUR and only a little bit higher against AUD. Given its strong gains last week, we could see short-term retracement opportunities.