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Risk sentiment sent the Loonie all over the charts last week. Can we see a more uniform direction with this week’s catalysts?

Here’s a list of events you should watch out for:

CPI reports (Nov 20, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • Annual inflation inched up by 1.9%, the lowest since March, when analysts had seen a 2.1% growth
  • Monthly CPI slipped by 0.4%, worse than the 0.1% decrease seen in August. Transportation, recreation, and education and reading dragged on the prices
  • Core CPI clocked in at 1.9% from a year ago in September, the lowest since April
  • CAD gained against the dollar but lost pips against the comdolls, GBP, and CHF
  • Market players expect the headline CPI to come in at 0.3% for October
  • Annualized headline CPI could maintain its 1.9% reading
  • BOC’s other CPI measures (common, median, trimmed) are also due for release

Poloz’ speech (Nov 21, 1:40 pm GMT)

  • Stephen Poloz is slated to talk about economic change in Toronto
  • A few days ago the BOC Governor talked about longer-term structural forces as central banks currently focus on global trade war and geopolitical risks

Retail sales (Nov 22, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • Retail trading weakened by 0.1% in August, much slower than the 0.6% seen in July and the 0.4% increase that markets had expected
  • Core retail sales also disappointed at -0.2% vs. 0.0% expected and 0.0% reading in July
  • Instead of falling, CAD jumped higher on the back of post-election optimism
  • Analysts expect the headline retail sales at 0.1% in September

Technical Snapshot

  • Stochastic marks CAD as “oversold” against USD, GBP, NZD, and CHF
CAD Stochastic from MarketMilk
CAD Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD, and NZD/CAD are all bullish in the short-term
CAD Short Term Trend Profile from MarketMilk
CAD Short Term Trend Profile from MarketMilk
  • Among the three pairs, EUR/CAD and NZD/CAD are both “bearish but weakening” in the longer SMAs. Watch out for retracement or reversals!
CAD Long Term Trend Profile from MarketMilk
CAD Long Term Trend Profile from MarketMilk