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A surprisingly weak labor market report sank the Aussie across the board last week. Can the RBA break the bears’ momentum?

Here are catalysts that could affect the Aussie’s price action:

RBA’s meeting minutes (Nov 19, 12:30 am GMT)

Flash manufacturing and services PMIs (Nov 21, 10:00 pm GMT)

  • Manufacturing PMI inched lower from 50.3 to 50.1 in October, the lowest in three and a half years. New orders decreased for the first time ever thanks to weak demand
  • Markit’s services PMI also weakened from 52.4 to 50.8 for the month. New orders and employment weakened, while business confidence sank to a seven-month low
  • AUD dropped to new intraday lows at the release and barely recovered for the rest of the day
  • Watch out for even weaker readings that suggest that the economy is hurting from global trade pressures

Market risk appetite

  • Other major central banks like the ECB and Fed will publish their meeting minutes this week. Their immediate plans could give clues on the direction of global interest rates
  • Markets expect the PBoC to lower its new loan prime rate (LPR) on Wednesday after unexpectedly injecting liquidity last Friday
  • With less than a month to go before the December 15 tariffs kick in, all eyes will be on the Trump admin’s willingness to adjust its existing tariffs long enough to lock in a “phase one” deal with China. Markets are cautiously hopeful that a phone call between Liu He, Lighthizer, and Mnuchin over the weekend will lead to more substantial updates

Technical Snapshot

  • Trading AUD against GBP, EUR, JPY, and NZD is a good idea if you’re looking for strong price movements
AUD Volatility Profile from MarketMilk™
AUD Volatility Profile from MarketMilk™
  • AUD/JPY is trading above its 50 SMA but lower against its 200 SMA. AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD, and AUD/USD could also see short-term retracements on their longer-term downtrends