Major Currencies Overview
The scrilla had a relatively stronger run in the past week compared to its earlier performances, thanks to weakness among most of its rivals and risk-off flows.
U.S. retail sales and CPI figures are lined up in the days ahead, so some focus might return to the economic outlook and policy. Still, market sentiment is something to keep close tabs on when trading the dollar. Read more.
The BOC toned down its hawkish bias during its latest monetary policy decision, and it didn’t help the Loonie that global trade concerns are still in play.
With no major reports on deck from Canada, Loonie traders could take cues from crude oil direction and overall market sentiment once more. Read more.
EUR & CHF
As expected, the ECB pushed back rate hike plans, initiated a fresh round of TLTRO, and downgraded this year’s growth estimates to account for the recent data disappointments.
There have been some glimmers of hope towards the end of the week as some of its top economies reported a recovery in industrial production, so this sentiment might keep a lid on euro losses in the days ahead. Read more.
Sterling had a fall from grace as the reality of Brexit started creeping in. It didn’t help that medium-tier data points painted a net negative picture of the U.K. economy.
It’s up to the House of Commons to determine the fate of Brexit this week as a series of votes are lined up, most likely ending in a decision to delay the breakup. Read more.
The yen clawed its way back to the top spot against its forex peers, thanks mostly to risk aversion returning on geopolitical risks and global economic concerns.
The BOJ will be announcing their monetary policy decision this week, and it’s worth noting that Governor Kuroda hasn’t been so happy about yen strength lately. Read more.
The Australian dollar had a pretty choppy week as it tossed and turned on domestic data and Chinese reports. The RBA didn’t cause much of a ruckus, but the downside GDP surprise brought rate cut talks back on the table.
Another round of major Chinese data is due this week, along with some housing and business confidence reports. On top of that, risk sentiment could make huge swings with major catalysts on deck. Read more.
Even with some risk-off flows in play for the most part of the week, the Kiwi managed to pull off a net win, except against the Japanese yen.
It’s gonna be another light week for the Kiwi, at least in terms of economic data, but it’s worth keeping tabs on the Business NZ manufacturing index and top-tier Chinese reports. Read more.
Charts to Watch:
Guppy recently broke out of the long-term descending channel that’s been holding for more than a year, signaling that a reversal might be underway. Stochastic is heading south from the overbought zone, though, so sellers could be in control.
Price sold off sharply last week, but this might be a mere retest of the broken resistance, which happens to line up with the bottom of a fresh ascending channel forming.
This pair has formed higher lows and higher highs to trade inside an ascending channel on its 1-hour chart. Price has dipped below the mid-channel area of interest, so it could be on track to test the very bottom around 1.5850.
Stochastic is already on the move up to indicate that buyers are taking control, but the oscillator might be closing in on the overbought zone to reflect exhaustion soon.
Bounce or break? AUD/CAD has made it to the top of the descending channel on the 4-hour time frame, still deciding whether to resume the slide or attempt a reversal.
Stochastic seems to be siding with the bears as the oscillator is pointing down and has room to head lower, so price might follow suit. Still, a move above the .9500 area would also be a break above the double bottom neckline.