Countercurrency moves and global risk sentiment propelled the dollar higher last week. Which catalysts can influence the Greenback’s price action this time?
Retail sales (Mar 11, 12:30 pm GMT)
Retail activity fell by 1.2% in December, which marked the steepest decline since September 2009. What’s more, the decline was seen across the board! The core reading didn’t look much better, as it clocked in a 1.8% decline when analysts had expected a flat reading.
The report inspired analysts to downgrade their growth estimates, which was why the dollar saw weakness that lasted until the end of the trading day.
This week market geeks are banking on the headline reading to show 0.0% reading after December’s 1.2% decline. Meanwhile, the core figure is expected to show a 0.4% growth.
Since there are no other top-tier events scheduled during the day, this week’s retail data will likely get the same attention from market players. Make sure you stick around in case we see any surprises, aight?
CPI reports (Mar 12, 12:30 pm GMT)
Consumer prices were unchanged for a third straight month in January, which was lower than the estimated 0.1% increase. Ditto for the core reading, which saw a 0.2% gain for a fifth month in a row and kept the annualized reading at 2.2% for a third straight month.
Luckily for dollar bulls, traders had focused on the annualized CPI showing growth for three consecutive months. The dollar shot higher and didn’t see significant resistance until the next day.
This time around, investors are expecting to see 0.2% growth for the headline monthly reading AND core consumer prices.
Steady or worse-than-expected inflation readings could support the Fed’s “patient” stance and weigh on the dollar some. But if we see much stronger-than-expected inflation pressure, then the dollar could see intraweek uptrend. Until another catalyst nudges it in the other direction, that is.
Core durable goods orders (Mar 13, 12:30 pm GMT)
Traders who are concerned about Uncle Sam hitting recession in the foreseeable future would care about businesses who buy long-term goods as investments.
U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in December, as demand for machinery and primary metals took hits. Turns out, non-defense capital goods excluding volatile materials such as aircraft dipped by 0.7%, which was only a bit better than the 1.0% decrease in November.
This week, traders expect to see a 0.8% decline for the headline reading, and a 0.1% increase for the core figure.
Take note that there are other lower-tier reports scheduled during the durable goods data, so it’s possible that reaction to the release is limited.
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for March 4 – 8!