Will the Aussie take cues from domestic data this week? Or will countercurrency moves dictate the comdoll’s price action for another week?
Here are potential catalysts for the Aussie this week:
Home loans and NAB business confidence (Mar 12, 12:30 am GMT)
The number of home loans issued in Australia dropped by 6.1% in December, which was faster than the 2.0% decrease that markets had expected and the 0.9% dip that we saw in November.
NAB’s business confidence report was better, but not much better. It showed business conditions rebounding in January, which eased concerns over hiring and investment in the foreseeable future. However, the report also shared that they now see “the RBA staying in neutral in the foreseeable future” and that they think that its “next move could be down rather than up.” Yipes!
Fortunately for Aussie bulls, traders were paying closer attention to developments in the U.S.-China trade negotiations at the time. The Aussie didn’t see any broad-based weakness until the middle of the week!
China’s data dump (Mar 14, Asian session)
Speaking of China, the world’s second-largest economy is scheduled to dump a bunch of top-tier reports this week. Thing is, market geeks think they’re about to unleash mixed numbers.
Industrial production is expected to slow down from 6.2% to 5.5% and annualized retail sales is seen at 8.1% against January’s 9.0% reading while the fixed asset investment is expected to edge higher from 5.9% to 6.0%.
We already know from last week’s price action that the Aussie tends to respond to Chinese data. That means big hits or misses from this week’s release will likely affect the comdoll, too! Make sure you’re around to trade the reports, aight?
Overall risk appetite
As mentioned in last week’s price review, global risk sentiment had a lot of influence on the Aussie’s price action.
This week pay close attention to top-tier data releases from the U.S. (retail sales, CPI), U.K. (GDP, annual budget), and the EU (industrial production, German trade balance) in case they affect overall risk sentiment.
Oh, and don’t forget that British lawmakers are set to vote on Brexit scenarios this week! If a hard Brexit becomes more likely as a result of their votes this week, then we’ll likely see more uncertainty (and volatility) in high-yielding currencies like the Aussie.
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for March 4 – 8!