PMI reports from the region are expected to show more weakness in business output.
Can Lagarde and her team provide enough support for the euro this week?
Here are potential catalysts you should watch out for if you’re planning on trading the common currency:
Lagarde’s speech (Oct 19, 12:45 pm GMT)
- In recent discussions, European Central Bank (ECB) Governor Lagarde has said that “recovery remains uncertain, uneven, and incomplete” so fiscal and monetary support “have to remain in place for as long as necessary.”
- Lagarde will deliver the opening remarks at the ECB’s conference later today
Consumer sentiment numbers
- Germany’s GfK consumer climate (Oct 22, 6:00 am GMT) could worsen from -1.6 to -3.0 in October
- Eurozone’s consumer confidence (Oct 22, 2:00 pm GMT) is expected to further dip from -13.9 to -14.6 as some states undergo localized lockdowns
- Business output in the region’s largest economies can hint at the pace of economic recovery after broader lockdowns and before localized lockdowns
- France’s manufacturing PMI (Oct 23, 7:15 am GMT) to clock in at 46.0 from 48.5 in September
- France’s services PMI (Oct 23, 7:15 am GMT) to dip from 47.5 to 45.1?
- Germany’s manufacturing PMI (Oct 23, 7:30 am GMT) expected to slip from 56.4 to 55.1
- Germany’s services PMI (Oct 23, 7:30 am GMT) to enter contractionary territory at 48.9 in October
- Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI (Oct 23, 8:00 am GMT) expected at 53.1 after 53.7 reading in September
- Eurozone’s services PMI (Oct 23, 8:00 am GMT) to contract further from 48.0 to 47.1?
Overall demand for EUR and CHF
- Any progress on the Brexit negotiations will support the demand for EUR
- Rising coronavirus cases and increased lockdown prospects will continue to limit EUR’s gains
- Market catalysts like the U.S. Presidential debates on Thursday and any stimulus or vaccine updates will influence CHF’s intraweek trends against its higher-yielding counterparts
- Stochastic considers the euro “oversold” against the Loonie and franc
- EUR/AUD may be “overbought” on the daily time frame
- EMAs show EUR/CHF’s short and long-term bearish trends
- EUR/AUD remains bullish on the daily time frame
- Most of the euro pairs are still above the 200 EMA though short-term bearish pressure could soon drag the common currency into longer-term bearish trends
- The franc has gained value against the Aussie, pound, and euro in the last seven days
- CHF has lost ground against its fellow safe havens
- The safe-haven franc was most volatile against the pound and the comdolls in the last seven days