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Unlike its comdoll peers, the Loonie was relatively unbothered by the risk-off theme last week.

Can Loonie bulls push for upswings this week?

Take a look at the potential catalysts that might affect CAD’s intraweek trends:

Inflation reports (Oct 21, 12:30 pm GMT)

  • Consumer prices dipped by 0.1% in August though annual inflation remained at 0.1% for the month
  • CAD briefly dipped at the news but soon hit new intraday highs as traders took risks ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement
  • Market players expect monthly inflation to rise by 0.1%, while the annual rate could speed up to 0.3%

Retail sales (Oct 21, 12:30 pm GMT)

  • Retail activity rose by 0.6% in July, much slower than the 22.7% gain seen in June and the expected 0.8% uptick
  • Lower building material, garden equipment, and food and beverage sales have also dragged on core retail sales
  • CAD made new intraday lows at the news and kept falling on an overall risk-averse trading mood
  • Analysts see the headline retail sales at 1.1% in August, while the core figure could inch 0.3% higher after a 0.4% decline
  • Annual retail sales could jump by 4.0% (from 2.7%)

Crude oil updates

  • As an oil exporter, Canada’s economy is affected by global crude oil prices
  • Officials from OPEC+’s producers have recently considered the possibility of a crude oil surplus in 2021
  • OPEC has already downgraded its 2021 demand forecasts last week, saying that it will rebound more slowly than previously thought
  • OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet virtually today to discuss compliance with the output cut deal
  • While there will be no policy decisions until December 1, this week’s discussions could shape the market’s expectations of policy responses from OPEC and its friends

Technical snapshot

  • The Loonie strengthened against the Aussie and the European currencies last week
  • CAD lost ground against the dollar and yen in the same time period
CAD Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
CAD Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
  • EMAs show the Loonie getting short-term bearish pressure on the daily time frame
  • CAD remains under the 200 EMA against AUD, EUR, CHF, and NZD
  • The Loonie remains bullish against the pound
CAD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
CAD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • CAD saw the most volatility against GBP, AUD, JPY, and CHF in the last seven days
CAD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
CAD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk