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A pretty busy week for the Aussie, which will see RBA’s meeting minutes and a data dump from China.

Which market events will move the comdoll in the next few days?

I’ve got a list that you should take a look at!

RBA’s meeting minutes (Oct 20, 12:30 am GMT)

  • Last week Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe hinted that they could extend its bond purchasing program to include longer-term maturities
  • This week’s meeting minutes could provide clues on how soon the central bank would implement its policy changes (maybe on November 3?)
  • RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle will give a speech at FX Week Australia 2020 on Oct 21, 10:30 pm GMT

PMI releases (Oct 22, 11:00 pm GMT)

  • PMI reports will hint at the impact of localized lockdowns in the last few weeks
  • AIG’s manufacturing index is expected to tick higher from 55.4 to 55.6 in October
  • Markit’s flash services PMI could improve from 50.8 to 51.0 for the month

China’s data dump (Oct 19, 2:00 am GMT)

  • China is Australia’s largest trading partner, so reports that would affect China’s growth usually impacts AUD’s prices as well
  • China’s GDP is expected to slow down from 11.5% to 3.3% in Q3 2020, though the annual growth rate could speed up from 3.2% to 5.1%
  • Fixed asset investment could grow by 0.7% after a 0.3% year-to-date dip in August
  • Annual industrial production to clock in at 5.7% in September after a 5.6% reading in August
  • Retail sales seen popping up by 1.7%, much faster than August’s 0.5% print
  • Unemployment rate could slow down from 5.6% to 5.5%

Overall risk-taking

  • Keep close tabs on Australia and China’s trade tensions, which could escalate beyond China (reportedly) banning coal imports from Australia
  • Thursday’s debate between Trump and Biden could cause volatility among the major currencies
  • PMI reports from the European region would hint at the pace of global economic recovery and influence high-yielding currencies like the Aussie
  • COVID-19 updates (lockdown, stimulus, vaccine projections) will continue to impact overall risk-taking and the demand for the comdolls

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging the Aussie’s “oversold” conditions against its fellow comdolls
  • Most of AUD’s major pairs are about to hit oversold status on the daily time frame
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • AUD remains above the 200 SMAs against its major counterparts
  • Shorter-term SMAs hint at AUD possibly seeing longer-term bearish trends across the board
AUD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • The Aussie was most volatile against the pound and the safe havens in the last seven days
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk