Trade Ideas

The U.S. Dollar has continued to rally as the dollar bulls still seem to have plenty of gas in the tank. Despite today’s pullback from the 81.20 level on the front-month contract of the U.S. Dollar Index, the uptrend is still intact across the 60 and 240-minute time frames.

What a bummer! I missed a really strong EUR/USD move with my HLHB system. There was a downward EMA crossover early this week, but it was an invalid signal for two reasons.

Guppy dropped down to hit my profit target, but unfortunately, my order didn’t get triggered!

Wow! Thanks to the run of risk aversion we saw yesterday, EUR/JPY tumbled down the charts, hitting my 2nd PT!

Looks like the pair couldn’t make new highs, as the pair reversed and eventually hit my adjusted stop at 132.90. With the pair breaking the channel support, could it be headed for new lows?

It’s Thanksgiving week – a holiday shortened week that is mainly going to effect the turnover in the U.S. but considering that the hours between 8:00am and Noon EST are typically the most volatile for dollar-correlated pairs, this is significant.

Bah! I thought EUR/USD was in the midst of a new downtrend, but I was wrong. Apparently, the market took the news of Ireland banks needing a bailout as GOOD news and bought up EUR/USD. How messed up is that?!?

With all the questions surrounding the risk appetite and risk aversion seen with this week’s volatility, it looks like indecision will have the final say as the week closes out. The U.S. Dollar has re-entered the range as the index has slid lower back below 79.00. This further confirms the likelihood for distribution on the daily time frame.

Soon after I posted my trade idea, news came out that the books from Ireland banks would be examined to see whether or not they can handle the debt load. This bit of news seemed to have calmed the markets down enough to spark an unwind of USD positions and a EUR/USD rally.

If you think about it, it’s pretty clear why AUD/USD shot up so quickly. It’s just a pity I wasn’t able to join the party!

Boo hoo! I almost got a potential signal but Stochastic is already over the 80 mark! The next candle also hasn’t shown signs of hitting the 30 pip filter as well.

If yesterday’s Dow Jones pullback could have been used as an indication to the risk aversion seen today, then I feel traders would have much more aggressively shorted the EUR/USD and the AUD/USD earlier in the day and as Europe and the U.K. opened.

My trade orders were triggered as the Greenback rallied against the majors on a renewed focus on European debt issues. Unfortunately for my trade, and the EU, these worries have intensified, pushing USD/CHF to my stop out level.

I still feel like I am waiting – like last week – for the dollar to make up its mind. The move higher on the U.S. Dollar Index has found some momentum and near-term support above the October highs, but continuation would mean an uptrend and I’m not convinced that there is enought bullishness for that…yet.

Oh phoeey! It looks like EUR/USD is starting a new downtrend but I’m not in it – my trade signals didn’t all line up!

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! It looks like my trade idea was way-off as price continued to shoot up after the appearance of the shooting star. I will not get emotional, I will not get emotional!!!

The U.S. Dollar continues to bounce within an overall range between 78.61 and 75.23 with what I see as a definite bearish bias coming from the mark down phase which has yet to transition or be broken.

On the chart I use here at Chartology, you ‘ll notice that I have a particular set of moving averages and color-coded candles that help me identify the trend, momentum, and sentiment of the market. Market trends or phases is the first step of my trading approach which means that before I enter a trade I must determine the market’s psychology which is revealed by its movement.

Oh, what a bummer. AUD/JPY just left poor little Happy Pip behind! It did zoom all the way up to 82.00, which is my first profit target. Should I have just entered at market?

Saved twice, missed a good trade once – that’s the story of the HLHB system this week.