We’re down to the last stretch of 2017, comdoll buddies! Before I take any new setups, I took some time to review my performance in the past quarter.
|Date||Trade Idea||P/L in Pips||P/L in %|
|Aug 2||CAD/JPY Inverse Head and Shoulders||-125||-0.31|
|Aug 24||NZD/USD Break and Retest||-80||-0.06|
|Sept 7||AUD/CHF Symmetrical Triangle||Canceled||Canceled|
|Sept 26||AUD/NZD Trend Line Pullback||-150||-0.50|
|Sept 26||Catching EUR/NZD’s Uptrend||+15||+0.018|
|Sept 30||USD/CAD Pullback to 1.2400||-90||-0.19|
No. of Trades Taken: 6
No. of Wins: 1
No. of Losses: 4
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 25%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: +0.018%
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: -0.265%
Total P/L: -1.04%
Ugh! Not my best quarter in all respects! After scraping by with a tiny win in Q2, I managed to erase this gain and more with four losing trades this Q3. This also makes it my worst quarter this year! *sobs in a corner*
I guess you can say that my trading confidence really took a hit early on and, while I had a bunch of setups on my watch list for the past three months, I only put orders for six of these potential plays. A quick review of all my trade ideas for the quarter leads me to believe that I probably would’ve made it out with a smaller loss or even another small gain had I been brave enough to execute those setups.
My first trade for the quarter already put me on the back foot as I cut my losses on CAD/JPY when I thought the tech setup was already invalidated. Looking back, I realized that I was waaay too early in playing my bullish Loonie bias and probably should’ve waited for a deeper pullback entry, knowing that a bit of risk aversion was also in play around that time.
After that, I went for a break-and-retest idea on NZD/USD as the pair showed early signs of a reversal from its selloff. I also cut my losses on this one when the Treasury’s pre-election fiscal update was rolled out, but a review of price action and my stop placement shows that I should’ve trusted my analysis and kept the trade open longer as bullish momentum eventually kicked in.
Next up, was my triangle breakout setup on AUD/CHF that didn’t show any downside action, so I just canceled my orders. Price did make a slight upside break, but that position didn’t really line up with my fundamental analysis. I didn’t really feel like chasing the move either, and price eventually drifted sideways.
I also had a long AUD/NZD trade idea around that time that I thought had missed my entry. I initially canceled the buy limit orders then spotted a chance to enter at market on another dip later on. As it turns out, this wasn’t a good idea because the pair was gunning for a break below support then!As for my EUR/NZD long play, which was my only winning trade for the quarter, I think that my long-term fundamental biases for the euro and Kiwi are still valid and that this setup would soon play out. However, I may have panicked a bit when opinion polls suggested a majority for the National Party in the elections, which was a bullish scenario for the Kiwi… and we all know it didn’t exactly pan out that way.
Lastly, I had my USD/CAD downtrend setup that I also had to close early when it broke through the trend line I was watching. I probably was too eager to short this pair, knowing that I had missed a bunch of opportunities to sell in the past, so I was also on edge when it came to trimming potential losses.
What I can glean from my trade setups this Q3 2017 is that I panicked one too many times when closing out my positions instead of letting price action take its course. My fundamental analysis has been more often right than wrong, but I guess I may have micro-managed my trades instead of filtering out the noise.
I guess you can say that I’m still trying to strike the balance between actively managing my positions as I’ve learned in previous quarters and trusting my biases and stop losses. I’d like to think that I no longer have any issues with stop placement as I’ve had in the past and that my entries have been nicely placed at decent levels.
Apart from that, I also have to remind myself to be more pro-active in taking my watchlist setups, even though they usually take a bit longer to materialize.
For instance, my bullish momentum idea on EUR/NZD actually made it all the way up to my target while my bearish channel short idea on GBP/CAD also dropped to my PT (and more!), probably catching enough gains to keep me in the black this quarter. Both of those would’ve been at least 1:1 wins.
Oh well, no use crying over spilled pips! Any tips for improvement you’d like to share with me? As always, I enjoy getting your feedback on my trading performance.
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