Thanks to the Fourth of July long weekend, I got a chance to crunch the numbers on my trading blog and list the lessons I’ve learned. Take a look!
|Date||Trade Idea||P/L in Pips||P/L in %|
|April 27||AUD/NZD Support Break||-95||-0.27|
|May 3||NZD/USD Fibonacci Resistance||+50||+0.20|
|May 18||CAD/CHF Broken Channel Pullback||+60||+0.13|
|May 19||AUD/CHF Falling Channel Resistance||+95||+0.36|
|June 6||AUD/JPY Selloff to Resume?||+50||+0.37|
|June 19||AUD/CHF Area of Interest||-108||-0.44|
|June 26||NZD/USD Channel Resistance||-45||-0.11|
|June 28||USD/CAD Long-Term Channel||-90||-0.16|
No. of Trades Taken: 8
No. of Wins: 4
No. of Losses: 4
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 50%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: +0.265%
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: -0.245%
Total P/L: +0.08%
Phew! I didn’t think I’d end up in the black for Q2 but it looks like I escaped with a teensy gain. It’s not much but I’d still chalk this up as a solid improvement over my Q1 2017 performance.
I was off to a rough start in April as I tried to chase a breakdown on AUD/NZD and failed to lock profits in before the reversal occurred. A similar scenario happened on the very next setup that I took, so I made the necessary adjustments and was able to catch some decent gains on that one.From there, I shifted to a more short-term approach in managing my open positions by monitoring economic reports more regularly and closing early if I thought the fundamental story was changing. This allowed me to go on a four-trade winning streak until mid-June!
Around that time, I was getting comfortable with the risk-off market environment as geopolitical tensions seemed here to stay. However, it was also then that risk sentiment had a huge shift spurred by changing central bank rhetoric. Higher-yielding commodity currencies appeared to bottom out from their dive but I was still trying to hop in those longer-term downtrends. Ack!
Looking back, I now realize how stubborn I’ve been about those trend setups when reversal signals had been popping up. As you can see from my last three setups, I took one short position after another on the Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie since I thought that the rallies were merely retracements.
To my credit, though, I was able to trim my losses on those positions instead of letting the pairs hit my full stops. Also, I put a smaller position on the line for USD/CAD since I was already wary of the BOC’s hawkish vibes back then.
All in all, I still think that I’ve made some decent progress in the past three months and it’s just that I’ve managed to catch the tail end of the trends at the end of the quarter. My win ratio is pretty decent at 50% and I’m proud to say that my average gain is *slightly* higher than my average loss.
My main takeaway is that I should continue to keep close tabs on headlines and changing fundamentals for the commodity currencies while being quick about making the necessary adjustments. It looks like my decisions to exit early, whether by locking in profits or cutting losses, has kept my account afloat AND has been able to keep my confidence intact.
Moving forward, I think we’ll see more of the same market conditions for the next few months since a lot of the moves could be headline-driven. Risk appetite could be tossed around by themes like Brexit, Trump, and central bank biases so I’ll be on the lookout for any big shifts that might happen again.
Any tips for improvement you’d like to share with me? As always, I enjoy getting your feedback on my trading performance.
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