Greetings, comdoll buddies! I just finished reviewing my trades and crunching the numbers for the first three months of 2017 so here’s a recap of my Q1 positions and the lessons I’ve learned.
Forex Trading Performance
| DATE | TRADE IDEA | P/L in pips | P/L in % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4 | AUD/USD Channel Retracement | -120 | -0.27 |
| Jan 10 | CAD/JPY Reversal Formation | +40 | +0.04 |
| Jan 12 | USD/CAD Bounce or Break? | Canceled | Canceled |
| Jan 17 | GBP/AUD Area of Interest | Canceled | Canceled |
| Jan 24 | AUD/USD Symmetrical Triangle | Canceled | Canceled |
| Feb 2 | Watching NZD/USD for the NFP | Canceled | Canceled |
| Feb 6 | NZD/JPY Long-Term Area of Interest | Not triggered | Not triggered |
| Feb 13 | CAD/JPY Channel Resistance | Canceled | Canceled |
| Feb 23 | AUD/NZD Simple Range Setup | -160 | -0.50 |
| Feb 27 | GBP/CAD Descending Channel | Canceled | Canceled |
| Mar 6 | Waiting for the RBA Decision | Not triggered | Not triggered |
| Mar 14 | FOMC Breakdown for NZD/USD? | Not triggered | Not triggered |
| Mar 21 | USD/CAD Ascending Channel Bounce | -45 | -0.11 |
| Mar 28 | CAD/JPY Descending Channels | Not triggered | Not triggered |
No. of Forex Trade Ideas: 14
Trades Triggered: 4
No. of Wins: 1
No. of Losses: 3
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 33%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: +0.04%
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: -0.29%
Total P/L in %: -0.84%
Bah, I know, I know… Not exactly the strong start I hoped for this year! Even though I had plenty of watchlist setups, a bunch of those positions didn’t get triggered or I hesitated to put entry orders or jump in at market. I gotta say, that first trade loss for the year likely dampened my confidence in my next setups even though I could name a few that would’ve turned out really profitable.
For instance, those long yen setups against the Kiwi and the Loonie would’ve bagged me a lot of pips had I just considered hopping in a small position at market then pressing my advantage along the way. Heck, I thought of shorting NZD/JPY close to the top of its range at 83.50 and now it’s all the way down to the 77.00 levels!
Speaking of missed trades, I also regret not catching the channel resistance bounce off 87.00 for CAD/JPY and not setting a sell stop order for AUD/JPY’s triangle breakdown. Had I caught any of those setups, I probably would be looking at a better P/L or average gain per winning trade for the quarter.
Instead, I took on a full 0.50% loss with my AUD/NZD short position at the top of its range just when the Kiwi was being heavily beat up by risk aversion. This was followed by a shaky USD/CAD long position at 1.3375 that I chickened out of but eventually went in my favor.
So what did I learn from all this? On the one hand, I’m trying to shore up my confidence in my setups since most of these do turn out profitable anyway. But even though I keep reminding myself to trust my gut, I do worry that my cautious instincts sometimes get the best of me when I hop out of trades too quickly instead of being patient in waiting for price action to play out. I guess you can say I need to master the balance when it comes to these.
Apart from that, I’ll probably turn my focus on the yen pairs moving forward since the Japanese currency has been on a very strong bullish trend for most of the quarter. I’ll try to steer clear of the comdoll crosses unless there are strong fundamental arguments or technical confirmation, especially from the European currencies.
Got any tips on how I could improve my performance? As always, I love getting your feedback on my trading decisions.
Cheers!
See also: Q4 2016 Trading Performance Review
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