Partner Center Find a Broker

Finally finished crunching the numbers for the SMA Crossover Pullback system! How did this mechanical system fare in the first three months of 2019?

If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, make sure you look at the trading rules and risk management adjustments first. And now here are the numbers!

Q1 2019 SMA Crossover Pullback System Performance
Week P/L in Pips P/L in %
Dec. 18-Jan. 8 +169 +1.12
Jan. 8-15 +11 +0.07
Jan. 15-22 -112 -0.75
Jan. 22-29 -53 -0.34
Jan. 29-Feb. 5
Feb. 5-12 -50 -0.33
Feb. 12-19 +39 +0.35
Feb. 19-26 -2 -0.01
Feb. 27-Mar. 5 +300 +2.00
Mar. 5-12 +117 +0.78
Mar. 12-19 -89 -0.59
Mar. 19-26 -270 -1.80
Mar. 26-Apr. 2 -62 -0.41

This strategy was off to a pretty solid start, coming off positions left open since the last week of December 2018 and closed in early January. However, things started to get rocky in mid-January and onto the end of February, before the system finally snagged a full 300-pip win on Cable.

This was followed by a relatively decent 117-pip win, but most of these were returned on three consecutive weekly losses. Ouch!

Q1 2019 Equity Curve (SMA Crossover Pullback)
Q1 2019 Equity Curve (SMA Crossover Pullback)

After all that tossing and turning, the SMA Crossover Pullback System wound up with a theoretical 2-pip loss or 1.07% dent on the account.

Just a quick recap: This mech system caught 660 pips (3.07%) in Q1 2018, followed by a 1,245-pip run (9.57%) in Q2 2018 and a 1,121-pip gain (7.60%) in Q3 2018, then a 232-pip (-1.55%) loss in Q4 2018.

An optimistic way to look at it is that it might still be poised for much better performance in the next couple of quarters, but that the recent run isn’t so bad compared to the previous three months. What do you guys think?