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Just finished crunching the numbers for the SMA Crossover Pullback system! Did Q4 fare better than Q3 2018? And how did it go for the year?

If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, make sure you look at the trading rules and risk management adjustments first. And now here are the numbers!

Q4 2018 SMA Crossover Pullback System Performance
Week P/L in Pips P/L in %
Oct. 2-9
Oct. 9-16 -135 -0.90
Oct. 16-23 +194 +1.29
Oct. 23-30 +300 +2.00
Oct. 30-Nov. 6 +59 +0.39
Nov. 7-13 -450 -3.00
Nov. 13-20 -150 -1.00
Nov. 20-27 +66 +0.44
Nov. 28-Dec. 4 -27 -0.17
Dec. 4-11 -101 -0.68
Dec. 12-18 +12 +0.08

This strategy was off to a slow shaky start with a 135-pip loss to kick off October, but it was followed by three consecutive weekly gains that included one full 300-pip win on Cable.

After that late October sprint, it came to a screeching halt with one of its worst weeks as it snagged three full losses on all three pairs for a 450-pip dent or 3% loss. To add salt to the wound, this was followed by yet another losing week with a stopped out EUR/USD position.

A bit of a reprieve followed as it had a positive third week of November, but this was barely the comeback I was looking for. Back-to-back losing weeks followed before it pulled off for a not-so-strong finish last week.

It closed off with a 232-pip loss for the period, which amounts to a 1.55% dent assuming 1% risk per position.

Looking at the equity curve for Q4 gives a better picture of the early climb and the tumble that followed:

Q4 2018 Equity Curve (SMA Crossover Pullback)
Q4 2018 Equity Curve (SMA Crossover Pullback)

Quite the contrast to the previous quarters’ steady climb, huh?

Q3 2018 Equity Curve (SMA Crossover Pullback)
Q3 2018 Equity Curve (SMA Crossover Pullback)
Q2 2018 Equity Curve (SMA Crossover Pullback)Q2 2018 Equity Curve (SMA Crossover Pullback)
Q2 2018 Equity Curve (SMA Crossover Pullback)
SMA Crossover Pullback Equity Curve (Q1 2018)
Q1 2018 Equity Curve (SMA Crossover Pullback)

Just a quick recap: This mech system caught 660 pips (3.07%) in Q1, followed by a 1,245-pip run (9.57%) in Q2 and a 1,121-pip gain (7.60%) in Q3.

With that, the yearly total is still 2,794 pips or 19.63% for 2018. Not bad!

While I’m not too thrilled about this mech system’s run in the last stretch of the year, I still have some confidence in it thanks to the stellar performance in the middle of 2018. Oh, and also thanks to my dear readers who lift my spirits by encouraging me to trust the system’s track record even during negative weeks!