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In case you guys were wondering, I decided to jump ship from this CAD/CHF position when I realized I got in on a fakeout. Here’s a quick update.

Long CAD/CHF Trade

I really thought Loonie bulls were ready to charge on what appeared to be an upside breakout of the descending triangle pattern I was watching. The pair had broken past a longer-term ceiling, after all, and it looked like a good opportunity to join the rally.

But alas! The move proved to be a fakeout as price eventually slumped back to support. Still, I kept my fingers crossed for a bounce as crude oil gains might pull the positively-correlated Loonie along with it.

CAD/CHF 4-hour Forex Chart
CAD/CHF 4-hour Forex Chart

Unfortunately, the Canadian currency also failed to draw support from Canadian CPI readings even though these came in mostly in line with estimates. Support continued to hold, but I decided it was time to exit early when the next bounce didn’t reach as high as the previous one.

This signaled that bullish momentum was fading for CAD/CHF as Loonie traders are pricing in weaker odds of seeing another BOC hike anytime soon. I don’t regret my decision to hop out, though, as the pair is now trying to break support after seeing downbeat retail sales figures.

Here’s what I ended up with:

P/L: -75 pips / -0.25%

Even though this turned out to be yet another losing trade for me, I’m still happy with my decision to cut my losses. I just wish I would’ve been quicker about it or hadn’t entered on a fakeout in the first place!



See also: Q3 2017 Trading Performance Review

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