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Price action was mixed for the Greenback this week, and ultimately, a net losing campaign for USD bulls. It was battle between COVID-19 headlines, Fed speak, and improving U.S. economic data that had traders bouncing back and forth all week. 

Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
USD Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
USD Weekly Performance from MarketMilk

United States Headlines and Economic data

Monday:

California to close indoor restaurants, movie theaters and bars statewide as coronavirus cases rise

U.S. economic growth is slowing down, Dallas Fed’s Kaplan says

Fed’s Williams says shift away from interest-rate benchmark in 2 years remains on track despite coronavirus

Monthly U.S. budget deficit soared to record $864B in June

Strong bounce higher for the Greenback during the U.S. session as risk sentiment moved negative, reaction to the news of California closing a variety of businesses back down.

Tuesday:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index stood at 100.6 in June, a 6.2 points increase compared with May

U.S. consumer price index rose by 0.6% in June vs. 0.5% expected

Fed’s Bullard says stock market’s optimism has been proven right, so far

Fed’s Harker says U.S. economic downturn is painful and ‘stubbornly long-lasting’

Fed’s Brainard, eyeing weak recovery, says new policy tools may be needed

Trump signed law slapping sanctions on China for interference in Hong Kong

Risk sentiment was swinging positive for the session, this time on positive equity earnings headlines (Dow rises for a third straight day, rallies more than 500 points as Caterpillar leads), over shadowing negative geopolitical news (Trump “not interested” in Phase 2 trade talks with China) and accelerating virus cases growth.

Wednesday:

July Empire state index in positive territory for first time since pandemic began

US industrial production surges 5.4% in June

Fed’s Harker backs allowing economy to run hot before raising interest rates

Jump in Early-Stage Delinquencies Leads to Highest Overall Delinquency Rate in Over Four Years

Fed’s Beige Book sees increase in economic activity but nothing near pre-pandemic levels

Thursday:

U.S. Weekly jobless claims rise by more than 1 million for 16th straight week

Philly Fed manufacturing index retreats to 24.1 in July from prior month’s 27.5

U.S. Homebuilder sentiment jumps back to pre-coronavirus pandemic high

U.S. retail sales increased a better-than-expected 7.5% in June.

U.S. Business Inventories were down -2.3% m/m in May, -4.8% y/y

We saw a uniform move lower in USD against the majors, likely a reaction to the net negative round of U.S. economic updates seen above.

Friday:

U.S. homebuilding surges as coronavirus crisis sparks flight to suburbs, rural areas

University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for July 2020: 73.2 vs. 78.1 in June

U.S. reports 77,200 new coronavirus cases, shattering one-day record

Another round of USD selling into the weekend, possibly a reaction to some combination of the rising COVID-19 cases headlines, the disappointing consumer sentiment data, and/or some risk-on vibes sparked by positive comments from the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (Dr. Fauci is optimistic we’ll see COVID vaccine breakthroughs by early Fall).