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Much love for the euro this week, possibly on hopes of a recovery fund agreement and improving economic updates, while the Swiss franc soured on comments from the Swiss National Bank on keeping an expansive monetary policy.

The Euro

Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
EUR Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
EUR Weekly Performance from MarketMilk

European Headlines and Economic data

Monday:

German Wholesale prices in June 2020: -3.3% on June 2019

U.S. Targets French Luxury, Beauty Giants in Tariff Retaliation

France Primes Fresh Stimulus to Boost Jobs, Cut Taxes on Firms

Merkel and Conte Show Common Front in Push for Recovery Fund

EU summit may not reach recovery fund deal: Merkel

Tuesday:

German economic expectations fell in July, ZEW survey finds

Industrial production up by 12.4% in euro area and 11.4% in EU

Wednesday:

Germany’s Roth says optimistic EU deal can be clinched at summit

EU struggles for unity ahead of crunch recovery fund summit

Thursday:

Dutch Embrace the Bad-Guy Role Britain Left Vacant in Europe

ECB opts to wait and see, leaves rates and stimulus program unchanged

Lagarde Says Uncertainty Is Elevated, Recovery Uneven

Lagarde says ECB expects more grants than loans in EU recovery fund

ECB to go all the way on stimulus even as economy recovers, Lagarde says

Euro area international trade in goods surplus €9.4 bn; €7.1 bn surplus for EU

Friday:

Annual inflation up to 0.3% in the euro area; Up to 0.8% in the EU

Production in construction up by 27.9% in euro area and 21.2% in EU; Down by 11.9% and 10.3% compared with May 2019

ECB’s de Guindos sees EU agreement on recovery fund by end-July

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: The expectations for euro area real GDP growth averaged -8.3% for 2020.

Dutch PM Rutte says he sees less than 50% chance of EU fund deal

Dutch welcome new ideas on EU recovery fund but deal far off

EU’s Michel rejigs recovery fund plan to break summit deadlock

The Swiss Franc

Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
CHF Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
CHF Weekly Performance from MarketMilk

Swiss Headlines and Economic data

Monday:

Net negative start to the week for the Swiss franc as global risk sentiment was leaning positive on weekend news that Trump finally wore a mask, and possibly on news that Pfizer, BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine getting FDA’s ‘fast track’ status.

But we did see risk sentiment flip back to negative during the U.S. session after news broke of California closing a variety of businesses back down to send the franc higher.

Tuesday:

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index increase by 0.5% in June 2020

Swiss National Bank says expansive policy ‘more necessary than ever’ – the big reversal of the week back to the downside for the franc correlates with this event as traders priced in expectations of currency intervention from the SNB for the foreseeable future.

Wednesday:

A positive boost to global risk sentiment on Wednesday from positive vaccine news from Moderna and positive earnings numbers from U.S. equities, were the likely drivers for another push lower from CHF bears on the session.

Thursday:

The franc bottomed out and bounce during the Thursday U.S. session, likely on negative risk sentiment sparked by a combination of negative U.S. economic data (U.S. Weekly jobless claims rise by more than 1 million for 16th straight week) and geopolitical news (U.S. Weighs Sweeping Travel Ban on Chinese Communist Party Members).

Friday:

The Swiss franc recovered further during the Friday trading session with no direct catalysts or strong push from global risk sentiment. It’s likely the franc traded higher with the euro, which was on the rise on hopes of a EU recovery fund agreement this weekend.