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While election uncertainty bubbles in the background, dollar traders will price in any and all coronavirus-related updates that might affect Uncle Sam’s growth trends.

Planning on trading the Greenback this week?

Not before you take note of the potential market-movers that might affect its intraweek trends!

Closely watched data releases

  • Retail sales (Nov 17, 1:30 pm GMT) to slow down from 1.9% to 0.4% in October
  • Core retail sales to drop from 1.5% to 0.5%
  • Industrial production (Nov 17, 2:15 pm GMT) seen printing at 0.8% (from -0.6%)
  • Building permits (Nov 18, 1:30 pm GMT) could come in at 1.57M (from 1.55M)
  • Housing starts (Nov 18, 1:30 pm GMT) to grow by 2.1% (from 1.9%)
  • Initial jobless claims (Nov 19, 1:30 pm GMT) to ease from 709K to 685K?
  • Philly Fed manufacturing index (Nov 19, 1:30 pm GMT) to drop from 32.3 to 25.0 in November
  • Existing home sales (Nov 19, 3:00 pm GMT) to dip from 6.54M to 6.45M

FOMC members’ speeches

  • Richard Clarida (Nov 16, 7:00 pm GMT) will host an online discussion
  • John Williams (Nov 18, 5:15 pm GMT) will speak at a webinar
  • Robert Kaplan (Nov 20, 1:30 pm GMT) will talk energy and economy

Overall dollar demand

  • The Trump admin’s dismissal of lockdowns has cushioned economic growth concerns amidst record-breaking daily coronavirus cases and rising pandemic-related hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S.
  • Decreasing odds of a stimulus program has worked in the dollar’s favor last week as traders take bets off from their riskier assets
  • Continued election uncertainty can limit the dollar’s gains
  • If last week was any indication, more vaccine progress will lead to risk-taking and a weaker dollar

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers the dollar “oversold” against the Kiwi
  • It may also soon hit oversold status against the Aussie
  • USD/CHF is approaching the “overbought” region
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • EMAs reflect the dollar’s short and long-term bearish trends against most of its major counterparts
  • USD/CAD is seeing short-term demand on the daily time frame
USD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • The dollar was most volatile against Kiwi, the pound, Aussie, and the yen in the last seven days
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for Nov. 9 – 13!