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Sterling managed to shake off bearish vibes from downbeat data last week to emerge a net winner. Can it keep up its lucky streak?

Which catalysts can affect your pound trades?

Inflation reports (Nov. 18, starting 8:00 am GMT)

  • Headline CPI to hold steady at 0.5% in October
  • Core CPI likely stayed unchanged at 1.3% as well
  • Producer input prices to advance from 1.1% to 1.2%
  • Producer output prices probably saw 0.1% rebound after earlier 0.1% dip
  • Note that BOE left their inflation forecasts unchanged in latest meeting
  • BRC price shop index, which is considered a leading indicator of inflation, signaled a slight pickup in price pressures

Retail sales (Nov. 20, 8:00 am GMT)

  • Consumer spending likely slipped 0.4% in October after earlier 1.5% gain
  • This comes right before the second national lockdown in the U.K. so there could be a chance that panic-buying lifted grocery spending towards the end of the month
  • A larger than expected drop, on the other hand, could make traders wary of a more severe downturn in consumer spending now that lockdown measures are being put in place

Brexit updates

  • Negotiations between the EU and the U.K. could carry on until this week as talks remain deadlocked on key issues
  • A breakthrough in the trade agreement could be bullish for GBP as this might lift some uncertainty off the economy
  • Still, there is a chance that any deal might not be ratified if the government overrules the House of Lords and reintroduces parts of the internal market bill

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is giving off bearish vibes for GBP/CAD, which is in the overbought zone.
GBP Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
GBP Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • However, short-term SMAs put GBP/CAD in the bullish region while GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD look bearish.
GBP Pairs Moving Averages from MarketMilk
GBP Pairs Moving Averages from MarketMilk
  • GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY, and GBP/CHF were the most volatile pound pairs in the past seven days.
GBP Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
GBP Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read GBP’s price recap for Nov. 9 – 13!