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It’s a busy week for the dollar, which will see the big NFP report, a Presidential debate, and tons of FOMC members under the spotlight.

Feel like trading the dollar this week?

Read up so you know what other market players are expecting!

FOMC member speeches

  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chairman Powell has hinted that they’ve already pushed the pedal to the metal
  • We know from last week’s speeches that members are united in calling for more fiscal stimulus
  • Loretta Mester (Sept 28, 6:00 pm GMT) will speak about economic equality in a webinar
  • John Williams (Sept 29, 1:15 pm GMT) will speak at the U.S. Treasury Market Conference
  • Patrick Harker (Sept 29, 1:30 pm GMT) will talk machine learning and artificial intelligence
  • Richard Clarida (Sept 29, 3:40 pm GMT) will participate in a panel discussion titled “Future Considerations for Treasury Market Resilience”
  • Randal Quarles (Sept 29, 5:00 pm GMT) will talk financial regulation
  • John Williams (Sept 29, 5:00 pm GMT) will be back with a speech at the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics
  • Quarles (Sept 29, 7:00 pm GMT) will make a reappearance, this time at a virtual panel discussion to talk financial stability
  • Neel Kashkari (Sept 30, 3:00 pm GMT) will talk COVID-19 at a virtual forum
  • Michelle Bowman (Sept 30, 5:40 pm GMT) will deliver a speech titled “Community Banks Rise to the Challenge”
  • John Williams (Oct 1, 3:00 pm GMT) will be back with opening remarks at the NY Fed’s FinTech conference
  • Michelle Bowman (Oct 1, 7:00 pm GMT) will be back in a panel discussion titled “The Important Role of Community Banks in Ensuring Equitable Mortgage Credit Access”
  • Patrick Harker (Oct 2, 1:30 pm GMT) will close the week with a webinar on the labor market recovery

NFP-related releases

  • ADP report (Sept 30, 12:15 pm GMT) to jump from 428K to 610K in September
  • Initial jobless claims (Oct 1, 12:30 pm GMT) could slip from 870K to 855K
  • The employment component of ISM’s manufacturing PMI is expected to improve from 46.4 to 47.0
  • Unemployment rate (Oct 2, 12:30 pm GMT) could ease from 8.4% to 8.3%
  • Non-farm payrolls (NFP) to add another 915K jobs in September?
  • Average hourly earnings expected to ease from 4.7% to 4.6% for the month

Overall dollar demand

  • A debate between President Trump and ex-Vice President Biden could cause volatility among major dollar pairs
  • Eyes will be on Nancy Pelosi and Steve Mnuchin to see if the government can agree on a fresh stimulus deal in the next couple of days
  • COVID-19 updates (vaccine, stimulus, lockdown, and rising number of cases) will continue to influence the demand for the safe-haven dollar

Technical snapshot

  • The dollar gained by more than 4% against the pound and the Aussie in the last 30 days
  • USD also saw more than 2% gains against NZD, CHF, EUR, and CAD
USD Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
  • Bollinger Bands show USD/CHF’s “overbought” conditions
  • USD also soon hit “overbought” status against AUD, EUR, NZD, and CAD
  • USD/JPY remains in neutral territory on the daily time frame
USD Forex Pairs Bollinger Bands from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Bollinger Bands from MarketMilk
  • USD saw the most volatility against AUD, NZD, GBP, and CHF in the last seven days

USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for September 21 – 25!