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A dovish RBNZ and fears of a second wave of infections and slower economic growth around the world weighed on the Kiwi last week.

Can the bulls get some of their pips back this week?

Here’s a (short) list of the catalysts that might affect the comdoll in the next few days:

ANZ business confidence (Sept 30, 12:00 am GMT)

  • ANZ’s September release noted the improvement in forward-looking indicators despite the re-emergence of COVID-19 and new restrictions
  • NZD didn’t react much to the news, but the report did make it easier for the comdoll to rise when risk sentiment improved in the next trading sessions
  • Analysts see the index improving further from -41.8 to -40.5
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) pays attention to business surveys like this so you should too

Countercurrency price action

  • A lack of top-tier releases from New Zealand means that Kiwi traders will take cues from the comdoll’s major counterparts
  • The first Presidential debate between Trump and Biden could influence the demand for the dollar
  • Uncle Sam’s NFP release can also move the major U.S. dollar pairs
  • China’s PMIs can boost or weigh on the Aussie and take Kiwi’s intraweek trends with it
  • The last week of Brexit negotiations could inspire choppy trading for the European currencies
  • COVID-19 updates (new infections, stimulus talks, lockdown prospects) will continue to influence overall risk sentiment and the demand for high-yielding bets like the Kiwi

Technical snapshot

  • Kiwi has lost the most value against the dollar, yen, and Loonie in the last 30 days
NZD Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
  • Stochastic is signaling NZD’s “oversold” conditions against EUR, CAD, JPY, and USD
  • Kiwi may be “overbought” against the Aussie on the daily time frame
NZD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • EMAs reflect Kiwi’s short and long-term bearish trends against the euro and yen
  • NZD/CAD and NZD/USD remain above the 200 EMA even as it sees bearish pressure in the shorter time frames
  • Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on GBP/NZD and NZD/CHF
NZD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for September 21 – 25!